IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sdp/sdpwps/20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long Term Risk Assessment in a Defined Contribution Pension System

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Castañeda

    (Studies Division, Chilean Pension Supervisor)

Abstract

Una de las consecuencias más importantes de la reforma chilena de pensiones realizada a principios de los 80s fue la transferencia de una porción significativa del riesgo asociado al financiamiento de las pensiones, desde el Estado, hacia los afiliados del nuevo sistema obligatorio. En este artículo se desarrolla un marco analítico que permite incorporar el comportamiento del administrador de fondos en la medición del riesgo de largo plazo de su estrategia de inversión, en donde esta última medición se realiza desde el punto de vista de un afiliado al sistema que tiene preferencias definidas por el monto de su pensión final. El problema del administrador de fondos es caracterizado como un problema de selección de cartera dinámico y su solución es utilizada como insumo para cuantificar la exposición a la que está sometido el afiliado al sistema de pensiones. Los resultados de un ejercicio de simulación muestran que mientras menos averso al riesgo es un individuo, mayor es su Riqueza-en-Riesgo (definida como la compensación monetaria que lo deja indiferente en relación a su mejor alternativa externa), resultado que se explica por el hecho que la mejor alternativa externa del afiliado se incrementa relativamente más que el beneficio que obtiene por la pensión provista por el administrador de fondos. La misma lógica está detrás de la relación negativa que se encuentra entre el nivel de volatilidad del activo riesgoso y el nivel de riesgo al que está expuesto el afiliado..

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Castañeda, 2007. "Long Term Risk Assessment in a Defined Contribution Pension System," Working Papers 20, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Oct 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:sdp:sdpwps:20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.spensiones.cl/repec/3_doctrabajos/20_2007_long_term_risk_assessment_defined_contribution_pension_system.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eduardo Walker, 2006. "Optimal Portfolios In Defined Contribution Pension Systems," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 9(2), pages 99-129.
    2. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Stochastic lifestyling: Optimal dynamic asset allocation for defined contribution pension plans," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 843-877, May.
    3. M. Prigent & M. De Palma, 2003. "Optimal portfolio positioning," THEMA Working Papers 2003-24, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    4. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    5. Srinivas, P.S. & Whitehouse, Edward & Yermo, Juan, 2000. "Regulating private pension funds'structure, performance, and investments : cross-country evidence," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 23302, The World Bank.
    6. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Michael Stamos, 2006. "Life-Cycle Asset Allocation with Annuity Markets: Is Longevity Insurance a Good Deal?," Working Papers wp146, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    7. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1991. "A variational problem arising in financial economics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 465-487.
    8. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Young, Virginia R., 2007. "Annuitization and asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3138-3177, September.
    9. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    10. Detemple, Jerome & Garcia, Rene & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2006. "Asymptotic properties of Monte Carlo estimators of diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 1-68, September.
    11. Charupat, Narat & Milevsky, Moshe A., 2002. "Optimal asset allocation in life annuities: a note," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 199-209, April.
    12. Milevsky,Moshe A., 2006. "The Calculus of Retirement Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521842587, January.
    13. Detlefsen, Kai & Scandolo, Giacomo, 2005. "Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    14. Kai Detlefsen & Giacomo Scandolo, 2005. "Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 539-561, October.
    15. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
    16. Marco Frittelli & Giacomo Scandolo, 2006. "Risk Measures And Capital Requirements For Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 589-612, October.
    17. Frittelli, Marco & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2002. "Putting order in risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1473-1486, July.
    18. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:3:p:415-435 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro & Lucie Teplá, 2006. "Risk Management with Benchmarking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 542-557, April.
    20. Patrick Cheridito & Freddy Delbaen & Michael Kupper, 2004. "Dynamic monetary risk measures for bounded discrete-time processes," Papers math/0410453, arXiv.org.
    21. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    22. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    23. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    24. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Opazo, Luis & Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2009. "The long and the short of emerging market debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5056, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2018. "Scalar multivariate risk measures with a single eligible asset," Papers 1807.10694, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    2. Acciaio, Beatrice & Föllmer, Hans & Penner, Irina, 2012. "Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 50118, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Nicole EL KAROUI & Claudia RAVANELLI, 2008. "Cash Sub-additive Risk Measures and Interest Rate Ambiguity," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-09, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2018. "Time consistency for scalar multivariate risk measures," Papers 1810.04978, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, September.
    6. Alessandro Doldi & Marco Frittelli, 2020. "Conditional Systemic Risk Measures," Papers 2010.11515, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    7. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2014. "A unified approach to time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time," Papers 1409.7028, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    8. Alessandro Doldi & Marco Frittelli, 2021. "Real-Valued Systemic Risk Measures," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, April.
    9. Sigrid Källblad, 2017. "Risk- and ambiguity-averse portfolio optimization with quasiconcave utility functionals," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 397-425, April.
    10. Traian A. Pirvu & Gordan Žitković, 2009. "Maximizing The Growth Rate Under Risk Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 423-455, July.
    11. Beatrice Acciaio & Hans Föllmer & Irina Penner, 2012. "Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 669-709, October.
    12. Gerrard, Russell & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Vodička, Peter, 2023. "On optimal constrained investment strategies for long-term savers in stochastic environments and probability hedging," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 948-962.
    13. Munk, Claus & Sorensen, Carsten, 2004. "Optimal consumption and investment strategies with stochastic interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1987-2013, August.
    14. Fei Sun & Jingchao Li & Jieming Zhou, 2018. "Dynamic risk measures with fluctuation of market volatility under Bochne-Lebesgue space," Papers 1806.01166, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    15. Föllmer Hans, 2014. "Spatial risk measures and their local specification: The locally law-invariant case," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 31(1), pages 79-101, March.
    16. Geissel Sebastian & Sass Jörn & Seifried Frank Thomas, 2018. "Optimal expected utility risk measures," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 35(1-2), pages 73-87, January.
    17. Yi Shen & Zachary Van Oosten & Ruodu Wang, 2024. "Partial Law Invariance and Risk Measures," Papers 2401.17265, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    18. Thijs Kamma & Antoon Pelsser, 2019. "Near-Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation in Financial Markets with Trading Constraints," Papers 1906.12317, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    19. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2015. "Multi-portfolio time consistency for set-valued convex and coherent risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 67-107, January.
    20. Francesco, MENONCIN, 2002. "Investment Strategies in Incomplete Markets : Sufficient Conditions for a Closed Form Solution," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2002033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic convex risk measure; Pension system; Portfolio selection.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sdp:sdpwps:20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cristian Hernández The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Cristian Hernández to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/spegvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.