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Why promotion strategies based on market basket analysis do not work

Author

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  • B. VINDEVOGEL
  • D. VAN DEN POEL
  • G. WETS

Abstract

In text books as well as in the business literature, market basket analysis is often promoted as a means to obtain product associations to base a retailer’s promotion strategy on. They argue that associated products with a high lift/interest can be promoted effectively by only discounting just one of the two products. Implicitly, they argue that market basket analysis automatically identifies complements. In this research, we show that this implicit assumption does not hold. Our empirical analysis reveals that market basket analysis identifies as many substitutes as complements. Therefore, market basket analysis cannot be used to build a promotion expert system for retailers. Instead, we advice to base the promotion strategy on cross-price elasticities. We conduct this research using scanner data of a large European retailer. Multivariate time-series techniques are used to identify both short-run as well as long-run (persistent) effects of promotions.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Vindevogel & D. Van Den Poel & G. Wets, 2004. "Why promotion strategies based on market basket analysis do not work," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/262, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:04/262
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. D. VAN DEN POEL & Jan J. DE SCHAMPHELAERE & G. WETS, 2003. "Direct and Indirect Effects of Retail Promotions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/202, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. G. Dekimpe, Marnik & Hanssens, Dominique M. & Silva-Risso, Jorge M., 1998. "Long-run effects of price promotions in scanner markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 269-291, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leeflang, Peter S.H. & Parreño Selva, Josefa & Van Dijk, Albert & Wittink, Dick R., 2008. "Decomposing the sales promotion bump accounting for cross-category effects," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 201-214.
    2. B. Vindevogel & D. Van Den Poel & G. Wets, 2004. "Dynamic cross-sales effects of price promotions: Empirical generalizations," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/276, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market basket analysis; cross-price elasticities; promotion strategy; multivariate time-series techniques; retailing;
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    1. Loss leader in Wikipedia English
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