IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rtr/wpaper/0205.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Blue Chip Italian Bank Stocks: Chain Graph models for VAR And MARCH parameters shrinking

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Pierini

Abstract

In this paper Chain Graph models are applied to a multivariate time series of blue chip Italian bank stock returns, in order to construct graphs with minimum BIC among a particular class of graphs called decomposable, which have the desirable property of a closed form estimation . Firstly a chain graph is built for present and past values of the time series in order to reduce the parameters of a VAR(1) model estimation, setting to zero the parameters related to non-edges in the graphs. Then another chain graph is built for present and past values of the squared residuals of the previous estimated model. An MARCH(1) model is so constructed by restricting to zero the parameters which are not indicated by these graphs. In this way a great reduction of parameters is put in place, using the opportune multidimensional modelling only if it is necessary. The parameter shrinking doesn’t affect the return and standard deviation forecasts while improving the efficiency of the estimations. This approach seems powerful in that it can use the methodology of chain graph to identify the needed past to present relationships for multivariate time series

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Pierini, 2016. "Blue Chip Italian Bank Stocks: Chain Graph models for VAR And MARCH parameters shrinking," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0205, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dipeco.uniroma3.it/db/docs/WP%20205.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices," Working Paper ID Series 15885, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 15-48, January.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk–Return Trade-Off," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 34-44, January.
    3. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    4. Owadally, Iqbal & Jang, Chul & Clare, Andrew, 2021. "Optimal investment for a retirement plan with deferred annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 51-62.
    5. Antonio Rubia & Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2006. "Forecasting the conditional covariance matrix of a portfolio under long-run temporal dependence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 439-458.
    6. Bodart, Vincent & Reding, Paul, 1999. "Exchange rate regime, volatility and international correlations on bond and stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 133-151, January.
    7. Martin D D Evans & Viktoria V Hnatkovska, 2007. "International Financial Integration and the Real Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 220-269, June.
    8. Markus Haas, 2018. "A note on the absolute moments of the bivariate normal distribution," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 650-656.
    9. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2001. "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Exposures on Equity Asset Markets," Economics Series 94, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    10. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    11. Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard, 2016. "Targeting Estimation Of Ccc-Garch Models With Infinite Fourth Moments," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 498-531, April.
    12. Cavit Pakel & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard & Robert F. Engle, 2021. "Fitting Vast Dimensional Time-Varying Covariance Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 652-668, July.
    13. Kamel Helali & Thouraya Boujelbene Dammak, 2019. "Examining the Role of Structural Change in a Phillips Curve: Bivariate GARCH DCC Analysis," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 385-393, September.
    14. Tobias Fissler & Yannick Hoga, 2024. "How to Compare Copula Forecasts?," Papers 2410.04165, arXiv.org.
    15. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
    16. Berens, Tobias & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Wied, Dominik, 2015. "Testing for structural breaks in correlations: Does it improve Value-at-Risk forecasting?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 135-152.
    17. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Leverage and feedback effects on multifactor Wishart stochastic volatility for option pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 436-446.
    18. Mohamed Es-Sanoun & Jude Gohou & Mounir Benboubker, 2023. "Testing of Herd Behavior In african Stock Markets During COVID-19 Pandemic [Essai de vérification du comportement mimétique dans les marchés boursiers africains au cours de la crise de covid-19]," Post-Print hal-04144289, HAL.
    19. Hoga, Yannick, 2017. "Monitoring multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 105-121.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chain Graph Model; VAR; MARCH; Blue Chip Bank returns.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Telephone for information (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dero3it.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.