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Development of an expert system for the automatic detection of automobile insurance fraud

Author

Listed:
  • El Bachir, Belhadji

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Dionne, Georges

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

Abstract

The goal of this study is to develop a tool to aid insurance company adjusters in their decision making and to ensure that they are better equipped to fight fraud. This tool is based on the systematic use of fraud indicators. We first propose a procedure to isolate those indicators which are most significant in predicting the probability that a claim may be fraudulent. We applied the procedure to data collected in the Dionne-Belhadji study (1996). Our second step was to develop software allowing us to use the results of the statistical model to estimate the probability of fraud in files and to decide whether or not an in-depth investigation should be conducted. This software contains the mathematical equation and the parameters calculated by the Probit model.

Suggested Citation

  • El Bachir, Belhadji & Dionne, Georges, 1997. "Development of an expert system for the automatic detection of automobile insurance fraud," Working Papers 97-6, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:1997_006
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    Cited by:

    1. Artis, Manuel & Ayuso, Mercedes & Guillen, Montserrat, 1999. "Modelling different types of automobile insurance fraud behaviour in the Spanish market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 67-81, March.
    2. Yankol-Schalck, Meryem, 2022. "The value of cross-data set analysis for automobile insurance fraud detection," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Bermúdez, Ll. & Pérez, J.M. & Ayuso, M. & Gómez, E. & Vázquez, F.J., 2008. "A Bayesian dichotomous model with asymmetric link for fraud in insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 779-786, April.
    4. Denisa BANULESCU-RADU & Meryem YANKOL-SCHALCK, 2021. "Fraud detection in the era of Machine Learning: a household insurance case," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2904, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Donatella Porrini, 2002. "Frodi nell'assicurazione RC Auto: analisi economica e possibili rimedi," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(2), pages 109-138, March-Apr.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insurance fraud; insurance fraud detection; fraud indicators; probability of fraud; Probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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