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Monetary policies and oil price determination: an empirical analysis

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  • Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary
  • Naoyuki Yoshino

Abstract

While the oil price shocks of 1970s can be explained by pure supply factors, starting in the 1980s oil prices increasingly began to come under a different type of pressure. Oil prices accelerated from about $35/barrel in 1981 to beyond $111/barrel in 2011. At the same time interest rates subsided from 16.7 per cent per annum to about 0.1. This paper explains how this long-term price increase was, in most cases, caused by expansionary monetary policies that heightened oil prices through interest rate channels. Aggressive monetary policies stimulated oil demand and blew up oil prices, a trend that led to slower economic growth. As for elasticities, the results described in this paper show that oil demand price elasticity is low value and unlike some earlier literature states, supply price elasticity is statistically significant. In last section, the results show that oil prices adjust instantly, declaring the existence of equilibrium in the oil market during the period from 1960 to 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2014. "Monetary policies and oil price determination: an empirical analysis," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:38:y:2014:i:1:p:1-20
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/opec.12021
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    Cited by:

    1. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Yoshikazu Kobayashi, 2016. "Oil price fluctuations and oil consuming sectors: An empirical analysis of Japan," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 33-51.
    3. Farhad Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-75.
    4. Li, Shuping & Li, Jianfeng & Lu, Xinsheng & Sun, Yihong, 2022. "Exploring the dynamic nonlinear relationship between crude oil price and implied volatility indices: A new perspective from MMV-MFDFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    5. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Inagaki, Yugo, 2018. "Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing Price of Solar Modules," ADBI Working Papers 836, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2021. "Dynamic impact of the U.S. monetary policy on oil market returns and volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 159-169.
    7. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    8. Naoyuki Yoshino & Victoriia Alekhina, 2016. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on an energy-exporting economy: Evidence from Russia," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 2(4), pages 156-166.
    9. Morita, Tamaki & Higashida, Keisaku & Takarada, Yasuhiro & Managi, Shunsuke, 2018. "Does acquisition of mineral resources by firms in resource-importing countries reduce resource prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 97-110.
    10. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, 2017. "Impact of Fukushima Nuclear Disaster on Oil-Consuming Sectors of Japan," ADBI Working Papers 659, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Chang, Youngho, 2019. "Trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2017. "Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables," ADBI Working Papers 777, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. Roy Kouwenberg & Chenglong Zheng, 2023. "A Review of the Global Climate Finance Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-32, January.
    14. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Volatility Linkages between Energy and Food Prices: Case of Selected Asian Countries," ADBI Working Papers 829, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    15. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Chiu, Alvin, 2019. "Internal and External Determinants of Housing Price Booms in Hong Kong, China," ADBI Working Papers 948, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    16. Grzegorz Przekota, 2022. "Do High Fuel Prices Pose an Obstacle to Economic Growth? A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-15, September.
    17. Raghavan, Mala, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    18. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014. "Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24520, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    19. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2016. "Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 23-47, March.
    20. Jibril, Halima & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2020. "Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    21. Amin, Sakib & Jamasb, Tooraj & Nepal, Rabindra, 2021. "Regulatory reform and the relative efficacy of government versus private investment on energy consumption in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 421-433.
    22. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Three Arrows of “Abenomics” and the Structural Reform of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank, Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy," ADBI Working Papers 492, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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