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Gravity-Based Tools for Assessing the Impact of Tariff Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Gnutzmann–Mkrtchyan, Arevik

    (Leibniz Universität Hannover)

  • Hugot, Jules

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper presents two empirical tools to quantify the impacts of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in the structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium framework. The second tool quantifies the impact on bilateral aggregate trade in a general equilibrium setup, allowing estimates of trade reallocation and welfare changes. These tools are used to estimate the impact of tariff changes affecting Armenia, including (i) the alignment with the external tariff of the Eurasian Economic Union, (ii) free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union, and other economies—Iran and the People’s Republic of China, and (iii) the loss of beneficiary status for the Generalised Scheme of Preferences of the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Gnutzmann–Mkrtchyan, Arevik & Hugot, Jules, 2022. "Gravity-Based Tools for Assessing the Impact of Tariff Changes," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 649, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0649
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vinokurov, Evgeny, 2017. "Eurasian Economic Union: Current state and preliminary results," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 54-70.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity; Eurasian Economic Union; free trade agreements; generalised scheme of preferences; Armenia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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