IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbewp/0418.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe, Jesus

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Lanzafame, Matteo

    (Università degli Studi di Messina)

  • Zhuang, Juzhong

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

We estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC’s natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC’s potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC’s potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe, Jesus & Lanzafame, Matteo & Zhuang, Juzhong, 2014. "The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 418, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/prc-potential-growth-rate-long-run-constraints
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maroto-Sánchez, Andrés & Cuadrado-Roura, Juan R., 2009. "Is growth of services an obstacle to productivity growth? A comparative analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 254-265, December.
    2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    3. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    4. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
    5. Wray , L. Randall & Fernandez Lommen, Yolanda, 2013. "Monetary and Fiscal Operations in the People’s Republic of China: An Alternative View of the Options Available," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 380, Asian Development Bank.
    6. Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 2013. "Asia-phoria meet regression to the mean," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-35.
    7. L. Randall Wray & Xinhua Liu, 2014. "Options for China in a Dollar Standard World: A Sovereign Currency Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_783, Levy Economics Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Akhtar Gul & Fatima Zahra & Anum Iqbal & Tanbila Ghafoor & Musaddiq Hussain, 2020. "Linkage Between Poverty, Inequality, and Income Distribution: A Case on Bannu District, Pakistan," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 330-339, December.
    2. Ivan Roberts & Cai Fang, 2015. "Potential Growth and Rebalancing in China," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 29-38, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juzhong Zhuang & Matteo Lanzafame & Jesus Felipe, 2015. "The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints," Working Papers id:6656, eSocialSciences.
    2. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Path dependence, distributive cycles and export capacity in a BoPC growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-272.
    3. Valeriy V. Mironov & Liudmila D. Konovalova, 2019. "Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, April.
    4. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    5. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.
    6. A.P. Thirlwall, 2018. "Una vita nell’economia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(283), pages 179-210.
    7. Guilherme R. Magacho & Danilo Spinola, 2024. "Supply and Demand in Kaldorian Growth Models: A Proposal for Dynamic Adjustment," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 1613-1634, October.
    8. Ana Lourdes Morones Carrillo, 2016. "Crecimiento económico en México: restricción por la balanza de pagos," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 39-58, May.
    9. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 213-245.
    10. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2018. "Alternative Approaches to Technological Change when Growth is BoPC," Department of Economics University of Siena 795, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    11. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    12. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained cyclical growth with distributive class conflicts and productivity dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 620-640, November.
    14. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to the goods and labour markets," MERIT Working Papers 2022-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Ottorino Morresi, 2017. "How much is CEO education worth to a firm? Evidence from European firms," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 311-353.
    16. Elena Spasova, 2016. "Balance-of-payments constraints on Bulgarian economic growth," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 90-108.
    17. Ignacio Perrotini-Hernandez & Juan Alberto Vazquez-Munoz, 2017. "Endogenous growth and economic capacity: Theory and empirical evidence for the NAFTA countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 247-282.
    18. Stephanie Seguino & Mark Setterfield, 2010. "Gender Equality and the Sustainability of Steady State Growth Paths," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Perche' la produttivita' degli investimenti varia tra paesi? (Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(279), pages 197-231.
    20. Nell, Kevin, 2023. "Inflation and growth in developing economies: A tribute to Professor Thirlwall," MPRA Paper 118757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance of payments constrained growth rate; Kalman filter; natural growth rate; Okun’s Law; People’s Republic of China; potential growth rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Orlee Velarde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eradbph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.