IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rim/rimwps/14_11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Crises and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Martin

    (Department of Economics, University of Bath, UK)

  • Costas Milas

    (Economics Group, Keele Management School, UK; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy; Erastinis, Greece)

Abstract

We analyse UK monetary policy using monthly data for 1992-2010. We have two main findings. First, the Taylor rule breaks down after 2007 as the estimated response to inflation falls markedly and becomes insignificant. Second, policy is best described as a weighted average of a "financial crisis" regime in which policy rates respond strongly to financial stress and a "no-crisis" Taylor rule regime. Our analysis provides a clear explanation for the deep cuts in policy rates beginning in late 2008 and highlights the dilemma faced by policymakers in 2010-11.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2011. "Financial Crises and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the UK," Working Paper series 14_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:14_11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp14_11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Enrique Martínez-García, 2011. "The Balance Sheet Channel," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 9, pages 255-297, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    5. Xavier Freixas & Antoine Martin & David Skeie, 2011. "Bank Liquidity, Interbank Markets, and Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2656-2692.
    6. Teranishi, Yuki, 2012. "Credit spread and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 26-28.
    7. repec:bla:econom:v:71:y:2004:i:281:p:209-221 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2014. "Liquidity Traps: an Interest-rate-based Exit Strategy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 1-14, September.
    10. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Lianfa Li, 2008. "Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter For Monetary Policy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 643-659, October.
    11. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    12. Fuchun Li & Pierre St-Amant, 2010. "Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Autumn), pages 9-18.
    13. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    14. Mihailov, Alexander, 2005. "Has more Independence Affected Bank of England's Reaction Function under Inflation Targeting? Lessons from Taylor Rule Empirics," Economics Discussion Papers 8894, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    15. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of the Credit Channel," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(571), pages 906-931, September.
    16. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    18. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
    20. Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Asset Prices, Financial Instability, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 14-18, May.
    21. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    22. Jan Willem Slingenberg & Jakob de Haan, 2011. "Forecasting Financial Stress," DNB Working Papers 292, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    23. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Aleš Bulíř & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 2008/018, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 12_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Fedorova, E. & Mukhin, A. & Dovzhenko, S., 2016. "Modeling Rules of Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the Financial Stress Index," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 84-105.
    3. repec:eid:wpaper:05/10 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Saad Ahmad, 2020. "Identifying a robust policy rule for the Fed's response to financial stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 565-578, October.
    5. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    7. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Vítor Castro, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," NIPE Working Papers 19/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Diana Lima & Ioannis Lazopoulos & Vasco Gabriel, 2016. "The Effect of Financial Regulation Mandate on Inflation Bias: A Dynamic Panel Approach," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0616, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    10. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "The lean versus clean debate and monetary policy in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 467-480, December.
    11. Emile van Ommeren & Giulia Piccillo, 2021. "The Central Bank Governor and Interest Rate Setting by Committee," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(2), pages 155-185.
    12. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    13. Eichler, Stefan & Lähner, Tom & Noth, Felix, 2016. "Regional Banking Instability and FOMC Voting," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Samira Haddou, 2010. "Non-linéarité de la fonction de réaction des autorités monétaires tunisiennes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 99-110.
    15. Yosra Baaziz, 2015. "Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Brazil: A LSTR Model Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
    17. Umit Bulut, 2023. "Measuring the impacts of monetary policy in Turkey: an extended structural vector autoregressive model with structural breaks," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 117-132, February.
    18. Kiyotaka Nakashima, 2008. "Ideal And Real Japanese Monetary Policy: A Comparative Analysis Of Actual And Optimal Policy Measures," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 345-369, September.
    19. Floro, Danvee & van Roye, Björn, 2017. "Threshold effects of financial stress on monetary policy rules: A panel data analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-620.
    20. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
    21. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "Testing The Opportunistic Approach To Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 110-125, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:14_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marco Savioli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rcfeait.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.