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Efectos económicos de futuras sequías en Colombia: Estimación a partir del Fenómeno El Niño 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Melo Leon, Sioux Fanny
  • Riveros Salcedo, Leidy Cáterin
  • Romero Otálora, Germán
  • Alvarez, Andrés Camilo
  • Díaz Giraldo, Carolina
  • Calderón Díaz, Silvia Liliana

Abstract

Este trabajo cuantifica el impacto de futuras sequías en Colombia, mediante el cálculo de los costos económicos que tuvo para el país el fenómeno El Niño ocurrido en 2015. En particular, este documento estima los efectos que una disminución del recurso hídrico - producto de un evento de variabilidad climática como El Niño- tiene sobre los sectores económicos, y valora la pérdida del ecosistema de bosque que generan los incendios forestales. Los resultados indican que una reducción en un 20% de las cantidades de agua y el aumento en un 4,5% de los precios de la energía eléctrica impactan, de manera conjunta, el 0,6% del PIB. Por su parte, los servicios ecosistémicos que los bosques dejan de proveer a la economía cuando hay pérdida de la cobertura vegetal, producto de los incendios, fueron valorados en un 0,1% del PIB sólo para el año 2015. En ese sentido, no tomar medidas de adaptación a la variabilidad tiene costos de al menos 0,7% del PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Melo Leon, Sioux Fanny & Riveros Salcedo, Leidy Cáterin & Romero Otálora, Germán & Alvarez, Andrés Camilo & Díaz Giraldo, Carolina & Calderón Díaz, Silvia Liliana, 2020. "Efectos económicos de futuras sequías en Colombia: Estimación a partir del Fenómeno El Niño 2015," Working papers 55, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:rie:riecdt:55
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.
    2. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    3. Romero, José Vicente & Naranjo-Saldarriaga, Sara, 2024. "Weather shocks and inflation expectations in semi-structural models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fenómeno El Niño; recurso hídrico; insumo producto; cambio climático; agua;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water

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