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The Effect of Climate Change on Land Use and Wetlands Conservation in Western Canada: An Application of Positive Mathematical Programming

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  • Patrick Withey
  • G. Cornelis van Kooten

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on land use in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada, with particular emphasis on how climate change will impact wetlands. A multi-region Positive Mathematical Programming model calibrates land use in the area to observed acreage in 2006. Policy simulations for both climate effects as well as the effects of biofuel policies determine how climate change will affect land use and wetlands. Given that the model calibrates to observed acreage, the policies provide a realistic view of how land use might change from current levels, given the effects of climate change. Results indicate that climate change could decrease wetlands in this area by as much as 50 percent. The effect will be very different depending on whether or not the social benefits of wetlands are considered, and the effects of climate change on wetlands are heterogeneous across the Prairie Provinces.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Withey & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change on Land Use and Wetlands Conservation in Western Canada: An Application of Positive Mathematical Programming," Working Papers 2011-04, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:rep:wpaper:2011-04
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    File URL: http://web.uvic.ca/~repa/publications/REPA%20working%20papers/WorkingPaper2011-04.pdf
    File Function: Final version, 2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brett G. Cortus & Scott R. Jeffrey & James R. Unterschultz & Peter C. Boxall, 2011. "The Economics of Wetland Drainage and Retention in Saskatchewan," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 59(1), pages 109-126, March.
    2. Hatchett, Steven & Mann, Roger & Zhang, Bin, 1997. "Analysis of Agricultural Economics for the Central Valley Project Improvement Act Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35761, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 329-342.
    4. G. Cornelis van Kooten & Patrick Withey & Linda Wong, 2011. "Bioeconomic Modeling of Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Accounting for Amenity Values," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 59, pages 167-183, June.
    5. Bruno Henry Frahan & Jeroen Buysse & Philippe Polomé & Bruno Fernagut & Olivier Harmignie & Ludwig Lauwers & Guido Huylenbroeck & Jef Meensel, 2007. "Positive Mathematical Programming for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Analysis: Review and Practice," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Andres Weintraub & Carlos Romero & Trond Bjørndal & Rafael Epstein & Jaime Miranda (ed.), Handbook Of Operations Research In Natural Resources, chapter 0, pages 129-154, Springer.
    6. Withey, Patrick & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change on Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Incorporating Cropping Decisions into a Bioeconomic Model," Working Papers 117437, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
    7. Woodward, Richard T. & Wui, Yong-Suhk, 2001. "The economic value of wetland services: a meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 257-270, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. van Kooten, G. Cornelis & Withey, Patrick & Wong, Linda, 2011. "Climate Change Impacts on Waterfowl Habitat in Western Canada," Working Papers 107094, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Positive mathematical programming; wetlands conservation; land use change; climate change; biofuels; Prairie pothole region;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water

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