IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed017/885.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor Hiring, Aggregate Dividends, and Return Predictability in the Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoji Lin

    (Ohio State University)

  • Ding Luo

    (University of Minnesota, Twin Cities)

  • Andres Donangelo

    (University of Texas)

  • Frederico Belo

    (University of Minnesota and NBER)

Abstract

Using a standard production model, we demonstrate theoretically that (a) aggregate hiring rates negatively predict aggregate discount rates and dividends (b) large firms explain most of return predictability while small firms explain most of the dividend predictability and (c) the explanatory power of hiring rates is not explained by traditional cash-flow based measures of performance. We present evidence for the three predictions of our model, and demonstrate the significance of labor hiring to understand the dynamic nature of discount rates and cash flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoji Lin & Ding Luo & Andres Donangelo & Frederico Belo, 2017. "Labor Hiring, Aggregate Dividends, and Return Predictability in the Time Series," 2017 Meeting Papers 885, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:885
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2017/paper_885.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2013. "Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2718-2759.
    2. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2002. "Time-varying risk premia and the cost of capital: An alternative implication of the Q theory of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 31-66, January.
    3. Harald Uhlig, 2007. "Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 239-243, May.
    4. Kuehn Lars-Alexander & Petrosky-Nadeau Nicolas & Zhang Lu, "undated". "An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E63, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    5. Andrés Donangelo, 2014. "Labor Mobility: Implications for Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1321-1346, June.
    6. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2014. "Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 675-718, April.
    7. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Toni M. Whited & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Investment-Based Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(6), pages 1105-1139, December.
    8. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    9. Kogan, Leonid, 2004. "Asset prices and real investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, September.
    10. Mayers, David, 1973. "Nonmarketable Assets and the Determination of Capital Asset Prices in the Absence of a Riskless Asset," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 258-267, April.
    11. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Şelale Tüzel, 2014. "Firm-Level Productivity, Risk, and Return," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 2073-2090, August.
    12. Xiaolan Zhang, 2014. "Who Bears Firm-Level Risk? Implications for Cash Flow Volatility," 2014 Meeting Papers 184, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    14. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Santiago Bazdresch, 2014. "Labor Hiring, Investment, and Stock Return Predictability in the Cross Section," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(1), pages 129-177.
    15. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    16. Donangelo, Andres & Gourio, François & Kehrig, Matthias & Palacios, Miguel, 2019. "The cross-section of labor leverage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 497-518.
    17. Chen, Long & Zhang, Lu, 2011. "Do time-varying risk premiums explain labor market performance?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 385-399, February.
    18. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2577-2603 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    20. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    21. Dmitry Livdan & Horacio Sapriza & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Financially Constrained Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1827-1862, August.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Human capital and capital market equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 95-125, January.
    24. Bryan Kelly & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Market Expectations in the Cross-Section of Present Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1721-1756, October.
    25. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    26. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2097-2137, September.
    27. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
    28. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    29. Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2013. "Organization Capital and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1365-1406, August.
    30. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    31. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2014. ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 20592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2006. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-44.
    33. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    34. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    35. Frederico Belo & Jun Li & Xiaoji Lin & Xiaofei Zhao, 2017. "Labor-Force Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: The Importance of Skilled Labor," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3669-3709.
    36. Jack Favilukis & Xiaoji Lin, 2016. "Wage Rigidity: A Quantitative Solution to Several Asset Pricing Puzzles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 148-192.
    37. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    38. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    39. Ron Giammarino & Murray Carlson & Adlai Fisher, 2004. "Corporate Investment and Asset Price Dynamics: Implications for Post-SEO Performance," 2004 Meeting Papers 812, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    40. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    41. Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Mikhail Simutin & Jessie Jiaxu Wang, 2017. "A Labor Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(5), pages 2131-2178, October.
    42. Marcelo Ochoa, 2013. "Volatility, labor heterogeneity and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-71, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    43. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    44. Kogan, Leonid, 2001. "An equilibrium model of irreversible investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 201-245, November.
    45. Selale Tuzel, 2010. "Corporate Real Estate Holdings and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2268-2302, June.
    46. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    47. Jean-Pierre Danthine & John B. Donaldson, 2002. "Labour Relations and Asset Returns," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 41-64.
    48. Miguel Palacios, 2015. "Editor's Choice Human Capital as an Asset Class Implications from a General Equilibrium Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 978-1023.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederico Belo & Jun Li & Xiaoji Lin & Xiaofei Zhao, 2017. "Labor-Force Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: The Importance of Skilled Labor," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3669-3709.
    2. Belo, Frederico & Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Labor Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: The Importance of Skilled Labor," Working Paper Series 2012-25, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    3. Donangelo, Andres & Gourio, François & Kehrig, Matthias & Palacios, Miguel, 2019. "The cross-section of labor leverage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 497-518.
    4. Kothari, Pratik & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2023. "Job postings and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    7. Esther Eiling & Raymond Kan & Ali Sharifkhani, 2018. "Sectoral Labor Reallocation and Return Predictability," Working Papers 2018-006, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    8. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    9. Chen, Long & Zhang, Lu, 2011. "Do time-varying risk premiums explain labor market performance?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 385-399, February.
    10. Jun Li, 2019. "Explaining Momentum and Value Simultaneously," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4239-4260, September.
    11. Winston Wei Dou & Yan Ji & David Reibstein & Wei Wu, 2021. "Inalienable Customer Capital, Corporate Liquidity, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 211-265, February.
    12. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    13. Segal, Gill, 2019. "A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 110-140.
    14. Mikhail Simutin & JessieJiaxu Wang & Lars Kuehn, 2014. "A Labor Capital Asset Pricing Model," 2014 Meeting Papers 695, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Sylvain, Serginio, 2014. "Does Human Capital Risk Explain The Value Premium Puzzle?," MPRA Paper 54551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Lorenzo Bretscher, 2023. "From Local to Global: Offshoring and Asset Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1420-1448, March.
    18. Huynh, Nhan, 2023. "Unemployment beta and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    19. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 23394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Li, Jun & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2018. "Aggregate Expected Investment Growth and Stock Market Returns," ADBI Working Papers 808, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed017:885. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.