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Consumption dynamics and the expectation channel in a Small Open Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Carrera, César
  • Puch, Miguel

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

El mecanismo de transmisión entre el consumo y sus fundamentos ha sido revisado en la literatura desde la hipótesis del ingreso permanente de Friedman hasta las restricciones de liquidez de los hogares. Un ángulo particular para explicar el consumo se centra en el papel de las expectativas del consumidor como determinante del gasto de consumo. Aquí se explora medidas alternativas para las expectativas de los consumidores (capturadas por encuestas a hogares) teniendo en cuenta las expectativas de los gerentes generales y utilizando importaciones de bienes de consumo duraderos (que capturan la confianza del consumidor sobre las condiciones económicas futuras). Se argumenta que, para una economía pequeña y abierta, el canal de expectativas está bien capturado por las medidas alternativas. También se encuentra que, aunque hay un traspaso de las expectativas al consumo, este efecto tiende a ser de corta duración. Además, se reporta aquellos valores y períodos de tiempo para los cuales las medidas de expectativa alternativas tienen un impacto significativo en el consumo.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrera, César & Puch, Miguel, 2019. "Consumption dynamics and the expectation channel in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2019-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2019-008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Durable goods; Business expectations; Households expectations.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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