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Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects

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  • Adrian W. Throop

Abstract

This paper finds that consumer attitudes, as reflected in surveys of consumer sentiment, have a significant influence on household purchases of durable goods. Normally, consumer sentiment moves with current economic conditions and bears a stable relationship to a few economic variables. At times of a major economic or political event like the Gulf War, however, consumer sentiment can move independently from current economic conditions. At such times it provides useful information about future consumer expenditures that is not otherwise available.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian W. Throop, 1992. "Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 35-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1992:p:35-59:n:1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    2. Kim, Jikyung (Jeanne) & Dong, Hang & Choi, Jeonghye & Chang, Sue Ryung, 2022. "Sentiment change and negative herding: Evidence from microblogging and news," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 364-376.
    3. Petar Sorić & Blanka Škrabić Perić & Marina Matošec, 2022. "Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4511-4535, December.
    4. Hatice Gökçe Karasoy Can & Çağlar Yüncüler, 2018. "The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 2136-2152, July.
    5. Kim, Kun & Park, Oun-joung & Yun, Seunghyun & Yun, Haejung, 2017. "What makes tourists feel negatively about tourism destinations? Application of hybrid text mining methodology to smart destination management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 362-369.
    6. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Staff Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
    7. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, "undated". "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1105-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    8. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
    9. Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sercin Sahin, 2021. "Consumer confidence, consumption, and macroeconomic fluctuations: A systemic stock‐flow consistent model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 868-904, November.
    11. Wadud, Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Tang, Xueli, 2020. "Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Claes Fornell & Paul Damien & Marcin Kacperczyk & Michel Wedel, 2018. "Does Aggregate Buyer Satisfaction affect Household Consumption Growth?," DOCFRADIS Working Papers 1802, Catedra Fundación Ramón Areces de Distribución Comercial, revised Jun 2018.
    13. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "The European Consumer: United In Diversity?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-022-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    14. Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December.
    15. Pami Dua, 2008. "Analysis of Consumers’ Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 335-350, November.
    16. Choy, Keen Meng & Leong, Kenneth & Tay, Anthony S., 2006. "Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-460, June.
    17. Adrian W. Throop, 1992. "Causes and effects of consumer sentiment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr17.
    18. Del Missier, Fabio & Ranyard, Rob & Bonini, Nicolao, 2016. "Perceived inflation: The role of product accessibility and attitudes towards inflation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 97-106.
    19. C. Alan Garner, 2002. "Consumer confidence after September 11," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 87(Q II).
    20. Easterlin, Richard A., 1995. "Preferences and prices in choice of career: The switch to business, 1972-1987," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-34, June.
    21. Salhin, Ahmed & Sherif, Mohamed & Jones, Edward, 2016. "Managerial sentiment, consumer confidence and sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 24-38.
    22. Dion, David Pascal, 2006. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case," MPRA Paper 911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. César Carrera & Miguel Puch, 2019. "Consumption dynamics and the expectation channel in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 144, Peruvian Economic Association.
    24. Valeria Borsellino & Sina Ahmadi Kaliji & Emanuele Schimmenti, 2020. "COVID-19 Drives Consumer Behaviour and Agro-Food Markets towards Healthier and More Sustainable Patterns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-26, October.
    25. Qiao, Zhuo & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2009. "Linear and nonlinear causality between changes in consumption and consumer attitudes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 161-164, March.

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    Keywords

    Consumer behavior; Consumption (Economics);

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