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Bayesian Estimation of Hispanic Fertility Hazards from Survey and Population Data

Author

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  • Michael S. Rendall
  • Mark S. Handcock
  • Stefan H. Jonsson

Abstract

Previous studies have demonstrated both large efficiency gains and reductions in bias by incorporating population information in regression estimation with sample survey data. These studies, however, assume the population values are exact. This assumption is relaxed here through a Bayesian extension of constrained Maximum Likelihood estimation, applied to 1990s Hispanic fertility. Traditional elements of subjectivity in demographic evaluation and adjustment of survey and population data sources are quantified by this approach, and the inclusion of a larger set of objective data sources is facilitated by it. Compared to estimation from sample survey data only, the Bayesian constrained estimator results in much greater precision in the age pattern of the baseline fertility hazard and, under all but the most extreme assumptions about the uncertainty of the adjusted population data, substantially greater precision about the overall level of the hazard.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Rendall & Mark S. Handcock & Stefan H. Jonsson, 2007. "Bayesian Estimation of Hispanic Fertility Hazards from Survey and Population Data," Working Papers WR-496, RAND Corporation.
    • Handle: RePEc:ran:wpaper:wr-496
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith K. Hellerstein & Guido W. Imbens, 1999. "Imposing Moment Restrictions From Auxiliary Data By Weighting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Mark Handcock & Sami Huovilainen & Michael Rendall, 2000. "Combining registration-system and survey data to estimate birth probabilities," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(2), pages 187-192, May.
    3. Ermisch, John F, 1989. "Purchased Child Care, Optimal Family Size and Mother's Employment: Theory and Econometric Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 79-102.
    4. Renato Assunção & Carl Schmertmann & Joseph Potter & Suzana Cavenaghi, 2005. "Empirical bayes estimation of demographic schedules for small areas," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 537-558, August.
    5. Guido W. Imbens & Tony Lancaster, 1994. "Combining Micro and Macro Data in Microeconometric Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 655-680.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Rendall & Mark Handcock & Stefan Jonsson, 2009. "Bayesian estimation of hispanic fertility hazards from survey and population data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 65-83, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Estimation; Human Fertility; Population Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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