IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qmw/qmwecw/609.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Test for Serial Dependence Using Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • George Kapetanios

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

Testing serial dependence is central to much of time series econometrics. A number of tests that have been developed and used to explore the dependence properties of various processes. This paper builds on recent work on nonparametric tests of independence. We consider a fact that characterises serially dependent processes using a generalisation of the autocorrelation function. Using this fact we build dependence tests that make use of neural network based approximations. We derive the theoretical properties of our tests and show that they have superior power properties. Our Monte Carlo evaluation supports the theoretical findings. An application to a large dataset of stock returns illustrates the usefulness of the proposed tests.

Suggested Citation

  • George Kapetanios, 2007. "A Test for Serial Dependence Using Neural Networks," Working Papers 609, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:609
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/2007/items/wp609.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
    2. Marcelo Fernandes & Breno Neri, 2010. "Nonparametric Entropy-Based Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 276-306.
    3. Baeck, E.G. & Brock, W.A., 1992. "A Nonparametric Test for Independence of a Multivariate Time Series," Working papers 9204, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    4. P. M. Robinson, 1991. "Consistent Nonparametric Entropy-Based Testing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 437-453.
    5. David Johnson & Robert McClelland, 1998. "A general dependence test and applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 627-644.
    6. Yongmiao Hong & Halbert White, 2005. "Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Nonparametric Entropy Measures of Serial Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 837-901, May.
    7. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Kapetanios, 2007. "A Test for Serial Dependence Using Neural Networks," Working Papers 609, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Marcelo Fernandes & Breno Neri, 2010. "Nonparametric Entropy-Based Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 276-306.
    3. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Luca Bagnato & Lucio De Capitani & Antonio Punzo, 2014. "Testing Serial Independence via Density-Based Measures of Divergence," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 627-641, September.
    5. Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Serial Correlation and Serial Dependence," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    6. Stefania D'Amico, 2004. "Density Estimation and Combination under Model Ambiguity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 273, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. repec:cte:werepe:we1211 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lei Jiang & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Jiening Pan & Ke Wu, 2018. "A test of general asymmetric dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1026-1043, November.
    9. Wu, Edmond H.C. & Yu, Philip L.H. & Li, W.K., 2009. "A smoothed bootstrap test for independence based on mutual information," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 2524-2536, May.
    10. Martinez Oscar & Olmo Jose, 2012. "A Nonlinear Threshold Model for the Dependence of Extremes of Stationary Sequences," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1-39, September.
    11. Matilla-García, Mariano & Marín, Manuel Ruiz, 2010. "A new test for chaos and determinism based on symbolic dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 600-614, December.
    12. Kapetanios, G. & Mitchell, J. & Price, S. & Fawcett, N., 2015. "Generalised density forecast combinations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 150-165.
    13. Dahl, Christian M. & Nielsen, Steen, 2001. "The Random Walk Of Stock Prices: Implications Of Recent Nonpara-Metric Tests," Working Papers 07-2001, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    14. Cho, Jin Seo & White, Halbert, 2011. "Generalized runs tests for the IID hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 326-344, June.
    15. Yongmiao Hong & Xia Wang & Wenjie Zhang & Shouyang Wang, 2017. "An efficient integrated nonparametric entropy estimator of serial dependence," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 728-780, October.
    16. Wu, Ximing, 2010. "Exponential Series Estimator of multivariate densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 354-366, June.
    17. Arthur Lewbel, 2000. "Asymptotic Trimming for Bounded Density Plug-in Estimators," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 479, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Oct 2000.
    18. L. Bagnato & L. De Capitani & A. Punzo, 2016. "The Kullback–Leibler autodependogram," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 2574-2594, October.
    19. Nesmith Travis D & Jones Barry E, 2008. "Linear Cointegration of Nonlinear Time Series with an Application to Interest Rate Dynamics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, March.
    20. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2011. "Nonparametric Copula-Based Test for Conditional Independence with Applications to Granger Causality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 275-287, October.
    21. Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Modelling Nonlinear Relationships between Extended-Memory Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(2), pages 265-279, March.
    22. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2014. "Nonparametric tests for conditional independence using conditional distributions," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 697-719, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Independence; Neural networks; Strict stationarity; Bootstrap; S&P500;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicholas Owen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deqmwuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.