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The magnitude of the impact of a shift from coal to gas under a Carbon Price

Author

Listed:
  • Liam Wagner

    (School of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Lynette Molyneaux

    (School of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • John Foster

    (School of Economics, University of Queensland)

Abstract

We seek to evaluate the extent of the pass through of increased fuel and carbon costs to wholesale prices with a shift of generation from coal-fired to gas-fired plants. Modelling of Australia's National Electricity Market in 2035 is undertaken using Australian Energy Market Operator assumptions for fuel costs, capital costs and demand forecasts. An electricity market simulation package (PLEXOS), which uses deterministic linear programming techniques and transmission and generating plant data, is used to optimise the power system and determine the least cost dispatch of generating resources to meet a given demand. We find that wholesale market prices increase due to the full pass through of the increased costs of gas over coal as an input fuel and the Carbon Price. In addition, we find that wholesale prices increase by more than the pass through of fuel and carbon costs because of the fact that generators can charge infra-marginal rents and engage in strategic behaviour to maximize their profits

Suggested Citation

  • Liam Wagner & Lynette Molyneaux & John Foster, 2013. "The magnitude of the impact of a shift from coal to gas under a Carbon Price," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 9-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:9-2013
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    File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg/docs/workingpapers/2013-09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2010 (Arabic)," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 311.
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    12. Lynette Molyneaux & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner & John Foster, 2012. "Australian Power: Can renewable technologies change the dominant industry view?," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 13-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. William E., Lilley & Luke J., Reedman & Liam D., Wagner & Colin F., Alie & Anthony R., Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 277-289.
    14. Keppler, Jan Horst & Cruciani, Michel, 2010. "Rents in the European power sector due to carbon trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4280-4290, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Teuku Naraski Zahari & Benjamin C. McLellan, 2023. "Review of Policies for Indonesia’s Electricity Sector Transition and Qualitative Evaluation of Impacts and Influences Using a Conceptual Dynamic Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Tracey Dodd & Tim Nelson, 2019. "Trials and tribulations of market responses to climate change: Insight through the transformation of the Australian electricity market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 44(4), pages 614-631, November.
    3. Ming, Wei & Nazifi, Fatemeh & Trück, Stefan, 2024. "Emission intensities in the Australian National Electricity Market – An econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Hungerford, Zoe & Bruce, Anna & MacGill, Iain, 2019. "The value of flexible load in power systems with high renewable energy penetration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. John Foster & Liam Wagner, 2014. "International experience with transformations in electricity markets: A Short Literature Review," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 2-2014, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    6. Simshauser, Paul, 2019. "Missing money, missing policy and Resource Adequacy in Australia's National Electricity Market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Simshauser, Paul, 2018. "Garbage can theory and Australia's National Electricity Market: Decarbonisation in a hostile policy environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 697-713.
    8. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2015. "Modelling the Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors for the Future Grid: Developing Co-Optimisation Platforms for Market Redesign," MPRA Paper 70114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Foster, John & Liebman, Ariel & Wagner, Liam, 2014. "Project 3: Economic and Investment Models For Future Grids Deliverable 2: The Scenarios," MPRA Paper 89474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. John Curtis, Valeria Di Cosmo, and Paul Deane, 2014. "Climate policy, interconnection and carbon leakage: The effect of unilateral UK policy on electricity and GHG emissions in Ireland," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    11. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2017. "Economic and investment models for future grids: Final Report Project 3," MPRA Paper 78866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Nolan, Tahlia, 2024. "Is pivoting offshore the right policy for achieving decarbonisation in the state of Victoria, Australia's electricity sector?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    13. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John, 2014. "Collinsville solar thermal project: Energy economics and dispatch forecasting - Final report," MPRA Paper 59648, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity; markets; infra-marginal rent;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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