IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qld/uq2004/270.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evolutionary Microeconomics and the Theory of Expectations

Author

Abstract

This paper sketches a framework for the analysis of expectations in an evolutionary microeconomics. The core proposition is that expectations form a network structure, and that the geometry of that network will provide a suitable guide as to the dynamical behaviour of that network. It is a development towards a theory of the computational processes that construct the data set of expectations. The role of probability theory is examined in this context. Two key issues will be explored: (1) on the nature and stability of expectations when they form as a complex network; and (2), the way in which this may be modelled within a multi-agent simulation platform. It is argued that multi-agent simulation (a-life) techniques provide an expedient analytical environment to study the dynamic nature of mass expectations, as generated or produced objects, in a way that bridges micro and macroeconomics.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Jason Potts, 2000. "Evolutionary Microeconomics and the Theory of Expectations," Discussion Papers Series 270, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:270
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:11070/DP270Feb00.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter E. Earl, 1989. "Monetary Scenarios," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 158.
    2. Loasby, Brian J., 1998. "The organisation of capabilities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 139-160, April.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters, in: The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results, pages 1-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Earl, Peter E, 1990. "Economics and Psychology: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 718-755, September.
    5. Hey, John D., 1982. "Search for rules for search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 65-81, March.
    6. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Rational Expectations: a Fallacious Foundation for Studying Crucial Decision Making Processes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Louise Davidson (ed.), Inflation, Open Economies and Resources, chapter 12, pages 123-138, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Bausor, Randall, 1983. "The Rational-Expectations Hypothesis and the Epistemics of Time," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, March.
    8. Arthur, W Brian, 1993. "On Designing Economic Agents That Behave Like Human Agents," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-143, Winter.
    10. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    11. Cooper, Arnold C. & Folta, Timothy B. & Woo, Carolyn, 1995. "Entrepreneurial information search," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-120, March.
    12. David Dequech, 1999. "Expectations and Confidence under Uncertainty," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 415-430, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yoguel, Gabriel & Pereira, Mariano, 2014. "Industrial and technological policy: Contributions from evolutionary perspectives to policy design in developing countries," MPRA Paper 56290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bibiana Lanzilotta Mernies, 2016. "Taxonomia y Dinamica de las Expectativas Economicas de los Empresarios Industriales en Uruguay. Un Analisis de Conglomerados," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 17(2), pages 229-256, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dequech, David, 2006. "The new institutional economics and the theory of behaviour under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 109-131, January.
    2. Michaël Lainé, 2016. "Uncertainty, Probability and Animal Spirit [Incertitude, probabilités et esprits animaux]," Post-Print hal-02942874, HAL.
    3. Felipe Almeida, 2014. "A Psychological Perspective Of Keynes’S Approach To Decision-Making," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 008, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Fontana, Giuseppe & Gerrard, Bill, 2004. "A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 619-637, October.
    5. Bélyácz, Iván, 2013. "Várakozások, bizonytalanság, valószínűség. Értekezés a kockázat számszerűsítésének korlátairól [Expectations, uncertainty and probability. An assessment of the limits to the quantification of risk]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 749-780.
    6. Richard Arena & Eric Nasica, 2021. "Keynes's Methodology and the Analysis of Economic Agent Behavior in a Complex World," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-10, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    7. Shyam Gouri Suresh & Mark Setterfield, "undated". "Firm performance, macroeconomic conditions, and “animal spirits” in a Post Keynesian model of aggregate fluctuations," Working Papers 14-09, Davidson College, Department of Economics.
    8. Jan Toporowski, 2013. "The Elgar Companion to Hyman Minsky," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 175-177, January.
    9. Jamee K. Moudud, 2010. "Strategic Competition, Dynamics, and the Role of the State," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4241.
    10. Franck Bessis & Guillemette de Larquier & John Latsis, 2009. "Are conventions solutions? Contrasting visions of the relationship between convention and uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04140883, HAL.
    11. Greg Hannsgen, 2007. "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy: A Critical Review," Chapters, in: Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer (ed.), A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Thomas I. Palley, 2013. "A Theory of Minsky Super-cycles and Financial Crises," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Financialization, chapter 8, pages 126-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Stephen Dunn, 2000. "Fundamental Uncertainty and the Firm in the Long Run," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 419-433.
    14. Alessandro Morselli, 2023. "The Modernity of Keynesian Thinking on Economic Policy from an Institutional Perspective," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(2), pages 67-86.
    15. Harald Uhlig & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Rules of Thumb versus Dynamic Programming," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 148-174, March.
    16. Sheila C. Dow, 2013. "Framing finance: A methodological account," Working Papers PKWP1308, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    17. David Dequech, 2008. "Varieties of uncertainty: a survey of the economic literature," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211223070, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Cecilia Bermúdez, 2014. "La racionalidad en la formación de expectativas. Crítica de la hipótesis de expectativas racionales," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 16(30), pages 83-97, January-J.
    19. Ivan V. Rozmainsky, 2015. "Investor myopia and persistence of the global crisis- a post Keynesian view," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 11(1), pages 107-116.
    20. Ettore Gallo & Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Historical Time and the Current State of Post-Keynesian Growth Theory," Working Papers 2204, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SOE IT (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decuqau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.