IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w201116.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Moment conditions model averaging with an application to a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function

Author

Listed:
  • Luis F. Martins

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the empirical validity of the baseline version of the forward-looking monetary policy reaction function proposed by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (2000). For that purpose, we propose a moment conditions model averaging estimator in the Generalized Method of Moments and Generalized Empirical Likelihood setups. We derive some of their asymptotic properties under correctly specified and misspecified models. Although the model averaging estimates and the standard procedures point to a stabilizing policy rule during the Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan tenures but not so during the pre-Volker period, our results cast serious doubts on the significance of the cyclical output variable as a forcing variable in the FED funds dynamics during the Volcker-Greenspan period.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis F. Martins, 2011. "Moment conditions model averaging with an application to a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function," Working Papers w201116, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp201116.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:wop:calsdi:96-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wouter Denhaan & Andrew T. Levin, 1996. "VARHAC Covariance Matrix Estimator (GAUSS)," QM&RBC Codes 64, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
    2. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
    3. Wouter J. Den Haan & Andrew T. Levin, 1995. "Inferences from parametric and non-parametric covariance matrix estimation procedures," International Finance Discussion Papers 504, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Adjemian, Stéphane & Karamé, Frédéric & Langot, François, 2021. "Nonlinearities and Workers’ Heterogeneity in Unemployment Dynamics," Dynare Working Papers 71, CEPREMAP.
    5. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lei Lei Song, 2006. "The Comovement between Fuel Prices and the General Price level in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. João F. Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Motohiro Yogo, 2009. "Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(5), pages 941-986.
    8. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "Monitoring for Disruptions in Financial Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-26, CIRANO.
    9. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2012. "The Role of Debt and Equity Finance Over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1262-1286, December.
    10. Eric Hillebrand, 2003. "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," Departmental Working Papers 2003-10, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    11. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Tests for Breaks in the Conditional Co-movements of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-59, CIRANO.
    12. Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2003. "A structural model of aggregate US job flows: another look," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 113-118.
    13. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 389-401, December.
    14. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
    15. Peter C.B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin, 2005. "Improved HAR Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1513, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
    17. Lee, Wei-Ming & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Hsu, Yu-Chin, 2014. "Testing over-identifying restrictions without consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(2), pages 181-193.
    18. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
    19. Andreu Sansó & Vicent Aragó & Josep Lluís Carrion, 2003. "Testing for Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Financial Time Series," DEA Working Papers 5, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    20. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2001. "Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie," Cahiers de recherche 2001-15, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    21. Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.