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Sale Rates and Price Movements in Art Auctions

Author

Listed:
  • Orley Ashenfelter

    (Princeton University)

  • Kathryn Graddy

    (Brandeis University)

Abstract

The failure of many paintings to sell in art auctions indicates the presence of reserve prices set by sellers. This paper examines the relationship between sale rates and price surprises over time in art auctions. Using data on contemporary and impressionist art, we show that while sale rates appear to have little relationship to current prices, there exists a strong positive relationship of sale rates to unexpected aggregate price changes, which is reminiscent of a Phillips curve. As a result, sale rates provide a useful quantity indicator of the strength of the art market. The data also indicate that sale rates revert to normal very quickly following a price surprise. We estimate an empirical model that suggests that the reserve price is set on average at about 70% of the auctioneer?s low estimate as published in the auction catalog.

Suggested Citation

  • Orley Ashenfelter & Kathryn Graddy, 2011. "Sale Rates and Price Movements in Art Auctions," Working Papers 1294, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David, Géraldine & Oosterlinck, Kim & Szafarz, Ariane, 2013. "Art market inefficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 23-25.
    2. Massimiliano Castellani & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Antonello Eugenio Scorcu, 2018. "On the relationship between reserve prices and low estimates in art auctions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 42(1), pages 45-56, February.
    3. Fedderke, Johannes W. & Chen, Tinghua, 2023. "Generalizing the “Masterpiece Effect” in fine art pricing: Quantile Hedonic regression results for the South African fine art market, 2009–2021," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Dakshina Garfield De Silva & Marina Gertsberg & Georgia Kosmopoulou & Rachel Pownall, 2017. "Dealer Networks in the World of Art," Working Papers 198144199, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun & Ahniia Havrylina, 2022. "Persistence in the Passion Investment Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 9586, CESifo.
    6. Orley Ashenfelter & Kathryn Graddy, 2011. "Art Auctions," Chapters, in: Ruth Towse (ed.), A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Second Edition, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Kathryn Graddy & Lara Loewenstein & Jianping Mei & Mike Moses & Rachel A. J. Pownall, 2023. "Empirical evidence of anchoring and loss aversion from art auctions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 47(2), pages 279-301, June.
    8. Vecco, Marilena & Chang, Simeng & Zanola, Roberto, 2022. "The more you know, the better: A Heckman repeat-sales price index," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 194-199.
    9. Belma Öztürkkal & Aslı Togan-Eğrican, 2020. "Art investment: hedging or safe haven through financial crises," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 44(3), pages 481-529, September.
    10. Milad Nozari, 2022. "Investment horizon for private‐value assets: Evidence from the art market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 229-246, June.
    11. Penasse, J.N.G. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Bubbles and Trading Frenzies : Evidence from the Art Market," Other publications TiSEM bf0d8984-df7f-4f02-afc7-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan & Vecco, Marilena, 2021. "Reading between the lines in the art market: Lack of transparency and price heterogeneity as an indicator of multiple equilibria," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Alexander Cuntz & Matthias Sahli, 2024. "Intermediary liability and trade in follow-on innovation," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 48(1), pages 1-42, March.
    14. Fedderke, Johannes W. & Li, Kaini, 2020. "Art in Africa: Hedonic price analysis of the South African fine art auction market, 2009–2014," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 88-101.
    15. Orley Ashenfelter & Kathryn Graddy, 2011. "Art Auctions," Chapters, in: Ruth Towse (ed.), A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Second Edition, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Anja Shortland & Andrew Shortland, 2020. "Governance under the shadow of the law: trading high value fine art," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 157-174, July.
    17. Aubry, Mathieu & Kräussl, Roman & Manso, Gustavo & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2019. "Machine learning, human experts, and the valuation of real assets," CFS Working Paper Series 635, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    18. Alexander Cuntz & Matthias Sahli, 2023. "Ars longa, vita brevis: The death of the creator and the impact on exhibitions and auction markets," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 76, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    19. Assaf, Ata & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Demir, Ender & Kumar Mitra, Subrata, 2021. "Market efficiency in the art markets using a combination of long memory, fractal dimension, and approximate entropy measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Plastun, Alex & Bouri, Elie & Havrylina, Ahniia & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Calendar anomalies in passion investments: Price patterns and profit opportunities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    art; auctions; reserve prices; sale rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions

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