Modeling the Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States using Machine-Learning: Does Climate Policy Uncertainty Matter?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Other versions of this item:
- Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2024. "Modeling the presidential approval ratings of the United States using machine-learning: Does climate policy uncertainty matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
References listed on IDEAS
- Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mark E. Wohar, 2021.
"Predicting Stock Market Movements in the United States: The Role of Presidential Approval Ratings,"
International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 324-335, March.
- Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Predicting Stock Market Movements in the United States: The Role of Presidential Approval Ratings," Working Papers 201830, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016.
"Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
- Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022.
"Measuring Geopolitical Risk,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
- Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2018. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1222r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 23 Mar 2022.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2018. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 79, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Fernández-Macho, Javier, 2018. "Time-localized wavelet multiple regression and correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 1226-1238.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016.
"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 15111, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 21633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp1379, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2015. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64986, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Davis, Steven & Bloom, Nicholas & Baker, Scott, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 10900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2022.
"Persistence of state-level uncertainty of the United States: The role of climate risks,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
- Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "Persistence of State-Level Uncertainty of the United States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202208, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
- Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023.
"Climate risks and state-level stock market realized volatility,"
Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Climate Risks and State-Level Stock-Market Realized Volatility," Working Papers 202246, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Seung-Whan Choi & Patrick James & Yitan Li & Eric Olson, 2016. "Presidential approval and macroeconomic conditions: evidence from a nonlinear model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(47), pages 4558-4572, October.
- Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Reneé van Eyden, 2023.
"Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating,"
Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-27, July.
- Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Renee van Eyden, 2023. "Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating," Working Papers 202311, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Chen, Zilin & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dashan & Wang, Liyao, 2023. "Presidential economic approval rating and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 106-131.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2024. "Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States," Working Papers 202427, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Ha, Jongrim & Kim, Dohan & Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S., 2025.
"Resolving puzzles of monetary policy transmission in emerging markets,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
- Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 33133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2403, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," CAMA Working Papers 2024-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Ayhan Kose & Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & Prasad,Eswar S., 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10974, The World Bank.
- Ha, Jongrim & Kim, Dohan & Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 17431, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- HA, JONGRIM & Kim, Dohan & Kose, Ayhan M., 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 122624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2023.
"Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
- Istrefi Klodiana & Odendahl Florens & Sestieri Giulia, 2020. "Fed Communication on Financial Stability Concerns and Monetary Policy Decisions: Revelations from Speeches," Working papers 779, Banque de France.
- Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2022. "Fed Communication on Financial Stability Concerns and Monetary Policy Decisions: Revelations from Speeches," CEPR Discussion Papers 17671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Klodiana Istrefi & Florens Odendahl & Giulia Sestieri, 2021. "Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: revelations from speeches," Working Papers 2110, Banco de España.
- Foglia, Matteo & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2025.
"Long-span multi-layer spillovers between moments of advanced equity markets: The role of climate risks,"
Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Matteo Foglia & Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2024. "Long-Span Multi-Layer Spillovers between Moments of Advanced Equity Markets: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202415, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Christina Christou & Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2022.
"Monetary policy reaction to uncertainty in Japan: Evidence from a quantile‐on‐quantile interest rate rule,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2041-2053, April.
- Christina Christou & Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2019. "Monetary Policy Reaction to Uncertainty in Japan: Evidence from a Quantile-on-Quantile Interest Rate Rule," Working Papers 201929, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Li, Xiaodan & Gong, Xue & Xing, Lu, 2024. "The impact of presidential economic approval rating on stock volatility: An industrial perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
- Gong, Xue & Xu, Weijun & Li, Xiaodan & Gong, Xue, 2024. "Presidential economic approval rating and global foreign exchange market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
- Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2022. "Modeling global real economic activity: Evidence from variable selection across quantiles," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
- Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024.
"Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
11192, CESifo.
- Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effect," NBER Working Papers 32638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Mineyama, Tomohide & Song, Dongho, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 19184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022.
"Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
- Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Hassan, M. Kabir & Alhomaidi, Asem, 2023. "How do sectoral Islamic equity markets react to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price shocks?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
- Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Naceur, Sami & Kanaan, Oussama & Rault, Christophe, 2021.
"Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
- Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Naceur, Sami & Kanaan, Oussama & Rault, Christophe, 2020. "Investigating the Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices on GCC Stock Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13853, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Sami Ben Naceur & Oussama Kanaan & Christophe Rault, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets," Post-Print hal-03529868, HAL.
- Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Sami Ben Naceur & Oussama Kanaan & Christophe Rault, 2018.
"Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
7072, CESifo.
- Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Sami Ben Naceur & Mr. Oussama Kanaan & Christophe Rault, 2018. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models," IMF Working Papers 2018/098, International Monetary Fund.
- Oguzhan Cepni & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Political Geography and Stock Market Volatility: The Role of Political Alignment across Sentiment Regimes," Working Papers 202414, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Reneé van Eyden, 2023.
"Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating,"
Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-27, July.
- Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Renee van Eyden, 2023. "Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating," Working Papers 202311, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
- Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Sahay, Vinita S., 2024. "Time-varying relationship between international monetary policy and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
- Fava, Santino Del & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rognone, Lavinia, 2024.
"Forecasting international financial stress: The role of climate risks,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
- Santino Del Fava & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Lavinia Rognone, 2023. "Forecasting International Financial Stress: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202329, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Lin, Boqiang & Zhao, Hengsong, 2023. "Tracking policy uncertainty under climate change," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
More about this item
Keywords
Presidential approval ratings; Climate policy uncertainty; Random forests;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-BIG-2024-03-18 (Big Data)
- NEP-CMP-2024-03-18 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2024-03-18 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2024-03-18 (Environmental Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.