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Presidential approval and macroeconomic conditions: evidence from a nonlinear model

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  • Seung-Whan Choi
  • Patrick James
  • Yitan Li
  • Eric Olson

Abstract

Contrary to previous empirical studies that find a linear link between economic conditions and presidential approval, this study argues for and finds a nonlinear relationship. A threshold regression is used to assess potential nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic variables and presidential popularity. A quarterly data analysis for the 1960Q1–2012Q2 time period reveals that domestic factors prevail in shaping presidential approval. Most compelling is evidence of a threshold relationship involving economic conditions: When unemployment is slightly over 7%, its decline impacts significantly and favourably on presidential approval, an effect that virtually disappears below the threshold value. Change in consumer sentiment affects presidential approval in a limited way, while inflation shows no association at all. These results combine to encourage further investigation of nonlinear processes in the nexus of economics and politics.

Suggested Citation

  • Seung-Whan Choi & Patrick James & Yitan Li & Eric Olson, 2016. "Presidential approval and macroeconomic conditions: evidence from a nonlinear model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(47), pages 4558-4572, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:47:p:4558-4572
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1161718
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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Predicting Stock Market Movements in the United States: The Role of Presidential Approval Ratings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 324-335, March.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Reneé van Eyden, 2023. "Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-27, July.
    3. Rodrigo Cerda & Natalia Gallardo & Rodrigo Vergara, 2017. "Political approval ratings and economic performance: evidence from Latin America," Estudios Públicos 23, Centro de Estudios Públicos.
    4. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2024. "Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States," Working Papers 202427, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Yuvana Jaichand & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Presidential Approval Ratings and Stock Market Performance in Latin America," Working Papers 202411, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Modeling the Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States using Machine-Learning: Does Climate Policy Uncertainty Matter?," Working Papers 202406, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2019. "Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, February.

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