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Climate Change and Growth Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

  • Sarah Nandnaba

    (Department of Economics, Ecole normale superieure (ENS) Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

  • Wei Jiang

    (School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7PE, United Kingdom)

Abstract

We develop an overlapping generations endogenous growth model characterized by climate change, with the latter being specified as a fraction of output lost due changes in temperature anomalies. We show that growth dynamics arise in this model when changes in temperature anomalies is a positive function current economic growth, with this theoretical specification motivated through extensive empirical analyses involving 167 countries over a long span of historical data covering 1851 to 2018. In particular, two distinct oscillatory growth dynamics emerge: one convergent and the other divergent, contingent on the strength of the response of global warming, i.e., changes in temperature anomalies to current economic growth. Our theoretical results suggest that policy makers should be cognizant of the fact that unless economic growth is “green†, rapid global warming can would put economies in a fluctating divergent balanced growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Sarah Nandnaba & Wei Jiang, 2024. "Climate Change and Growth Dynamics," Working Papers 202404, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202404
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Çepni, Oğuzhan, 2022. "The effects of climate risks on economic activity in a panel of US states: The role of uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Using low frequency information for predicting high frequency variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-787.
    4. Bittencourt, Manoel & Gupta, Rangan & Makena, Philton & Stander, Lardo, 2022. "Socio-political instability and growth dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    5. Michael Donadelli & Marcus Jüppner & Sergio Vergalli, 2022. "Temperature Variability and the Macroeconomy: A World Tour," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 221-259, September.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Philton Makena, 2020. "Growth Dynamics, Multiple Equilibria, and Local Indeterminacy in an Endogenous Growth Model of Money, Banking and Inflation Targeting," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    9. Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Salisu, Afees A. & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "Predictability of economic slowdowns in advanced countries over eight centuries: The role of climate risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Rangan Gupta & Cobus Vermeulen, 2010. "Private and Public Health Expenditures in an Endogenous Growth Model with Inflation Targeting," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 139-153, May.
    11. Kudoh, Noritaka, 2013. "Policy Interaction And Learning Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 920-935, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; endogenous growth; dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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