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How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

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  • Cobham, David
  • Song, Mengdi

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of countries' choices of monetary policy framework (MPF). It uses a brief narrative focused on groupings of countries making similar choices to motivate an econometric analysis which also draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes. That analysis brings in other more standard factors, as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial markets depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries' choices of MPF, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Cobham, David & Song, Mengdi, 2019. "How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?," MPRA Paper 99110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meissner, Christopher M. & Oomes, Nienke, 2009. "Why do countries peg the way they peg? The determinants of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 522-547, April.
    2. Cobham, David & Song, Mengdi, 2020. "How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1187-1207.
    3. Cobham, David, 2018. "A comprehensive classification of monetary policy frameworks for advanced and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 84737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026251799x, April.
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    13. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
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    15. Nicoletta Batini & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 12, pages 467-506, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343, Elsevier.
    18. Thornton, John, 2016. "Inflation targeting in developing countries revisited," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 145-153.
    19. Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, 2016. "Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2016/005, International Monetary Fund.
    20. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2008. "What drives the Choice of Money-based Targets in the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 479, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    22. Mr. Bernard J Laurens, 2005. "Monetary Policy Implementation at Different Stages of Market Development," IMF Occasional Papers 2005/009, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
    24. Mengdi Song, 2018. "Network Effects of Countries’ Exchange Rate Regime Choices: A Spatial Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1061-1093, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cobham, David & Macmillan, Peter & Mason, Connor & Song, Mengdi, 2022. "Economic performance under different monetary policy frameworks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 431-449.
    2. Lee, King Fuei, 2023. "Effects of Monetary Policy Frameworks on Stock Market Volatilities: An Empirical Study of Global Economies," MPRA Paper 119755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. David Cobham, 2024. "Monetary policy frameworks since Bretton Woods, across the world and its regions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 873-903, August.
    4. David Cobham, 2024. "Monetary policy frameworks since Bretton Woods, across the world and its regions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 873-903, August.
    5. David Cobham, 2022. "Monetary policy frameworks in the Middle East and North Africa: How do they compare with other groupings?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(1), pages 108-130, February.
    6. Sullivan, Megan, 2024. "Understanding and Predicting Monetary Policy Framework Choice," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2024-01, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.
    7. Cobham, David & Song, Mengdi, 2020. "How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1187-1207.
    8. Sullivan, Megan, 2023. "Determinants of monetary policy frameworks in emerging and developing countries," MPRA Paper 118398, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy frameworks; inflation targets; exchange rate targets; discretion; trade networks; financial market depth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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