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Determining global currency bloc equilibria: An empirical strategy based on estimates of anchor currency choice

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  • Fischer, Christoph

Abstract

The study presents an empirical strategy for determining global currency bloc equilibria. The procedure includes, first, a nested logit estimation of the combined determinants of currency regime and anchor currency choice; second, a test for a welfare-maximizing regime decision, in which estimates of the relative welfare of alternative regimes are inferred from the results of the first step estimation; and third, taking the path dependency of regime choice into account, a currency bloc equilibrium is derived. In equilibrium, the dollar bloc is somewhat smaller and the euro bloc larger than at present. Counterfactual exercises assess among others the potential for a renminbi bloc.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Christoph, 2016. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria: An empirical strategy based on estimates of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:64:y:2016:i:c:p:214-238
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.02.019
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    Cited by:

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    2. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Bettendorf, Timo & Heinlein, Reinhold, 2019. "Connectedness between G10 currencies: Searching for the causal structure," Discussion Papers 06/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Guo, Dong & Zhou, Peng, 2021. "The rise of a new anchor currency in RCEP? A tale of three currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Yu, Jishuang, 2023. "Dancing with dragon: The RMB and developing economies’ currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency bloc equilibrium; Anchor currency choice; Nested logit; Additive random utility model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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