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Forecasting TB notifications at Zengeza clinic in Chitungwiza, Zimbabwe

Author

Listed:
  • Nyoni, Smartson. Pumulani
  • Nyoni, Thabani

Abstract

This study uses monthly time series data on TB notifications at Zengeza clinic in Chitungwiza from January 2013 to December 2018; to forecast TB notifications using the Box & Jenkins (1970) approach to univariate time series analysis. Diagnostic tests indicate that TBN is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the SARMA (2, 0, 2)(1, 0, 1)12 model, the diagnostic tests further show that this model is quite stable and hence acceptable for forecasting the TB notifications at Zengeza clinic. The selected optimal model shows that the TB notifications will decline over the out-of-sample period. The main policy recommendation emanating from this study is that there should be continued intensification of TB surveillance and control programmes in order to reduce TB incidences not only at Zengeza clinic but also in Zimbabwe at large.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Smartson. Pumulani & Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Forecasting TB notifications at Zengeza clinic in Chitungwiza, Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 97331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97331
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yan-Ling Zheng & Li-Ping Zhang & Xue-Liang Zhang & Kai Wang & Yu-Jian Zheng, 2015. "Forecast Model Analysis for the Morbidity of Tuberculosis in Xinjiang, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Elizabeth L Corbett & Tsitsi Bandason & Yin Bun Cheung & Shungu Munyati & Peter Godfrey-Faussett & Richard Hayes & Gavin Churchyard & Anthony Butterworth & Peter Mason, 2007. "Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in a High HIV Prevalence Population Provided with Enhanced Diagnosis of Symptomatic Disease," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, January.
    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; TB; TB notifications;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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