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Is the United States of America (USA) really being made great again? witty insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in the United States of America (USA) from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. My diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that US GDP per capita data is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and hence reliable. The results of the study reveal that living standards in the US are likely to sky-rocket over the next decade, especially if the current economic policy stance is to be at least maintained. Indeed, America is being made great again!!!

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Is the United States of America (USA) really being made great again? witty insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 91353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91353
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    2. Guangling (dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "A Small‐Scale Dsge Model For Forecasting The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 179-193, June.
    3. Reyno SEYMORE & Margaret MABUGU & Jan VAN HEERDEN, 2010. "Border Tax Adjustments to Negate the Economic Impact of an Electricity Generation Tax," EcoMod2010 259600155, EcoMod.
    4. Rangan Gupta, 2007. "FORECASTING THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY WITH GIBBS SAMPLED BVECMs," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 631-643, December.
    5. Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2007. "Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach," Working Papers 200724, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara & Bertrand Pluyaud, 2012. "Monthly Gdp Forecasting Using Bridge Models: Application For The French Economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 53-70, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; GDP; USA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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