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Impact of Trade Liberalization on External Debt Burden: Econometric Evidence from Pakistan

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  • Zafar, Sabahat
  • Butt, Muhammad Sabihuddin

Abstract

Pakistan’s leading challenge today is to lessen its debt burden in order to pursue a path that leads towards sustainable and impartial growth for poverty diminution. The consequences of trade liberalization are of growing concern, mainly in the emerging economies with severe brim over effects on their debt situation. The major objective of this paper is to discuss the current external debt problem in Pakistan and analyze how its external debt is interrelated with trade liberalization policies and measures .Using data from the last three decades, this paper investigated whether there exist a momentous relationship between external debt and the trade liberalization variables or not. In this case study ARDL bounds testing approach is employed to investigate the long run relationships and Error Correction Method (ECM) for short run dynamics. After finding the order of integration through implementing the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron unit root tests, our finding suggested a significant long run positive association between external debt and trade liberalization is existed in case of Pakistan

Suggested Citation

  • Zafar, Sabahat & Butt, Muhammad Sabihuddin, 2008. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on External Debt Burden: Econometric Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 9548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9548
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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hodabalo Bataka, 2023. "Economic globalization and public debt in Sub‐Saharan Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1756-1771, April.
    2. Devika Dutt & Kevin P. Gallagher & Rachel D. Thrasher, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and Fiscal Stability in Developing Countries: What Does the Evidence Tell Us?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 375-383, May.
    3. Manuel F. Montes, 2021. "Slaying the New Dragons that Threaten Peace: Renewing the UN's ‘Systemic Issues’ Agenda," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 64(1), pages 19-28, June.
    4. Waheed, Abdul & Abbas, Shujaat, 2021. "Determinants and Sustainability of External Debt: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Islamic Countries," MPRA Paper 107486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bismillah & Shahnawaz Malik & Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh, 2022. "Trade Liberalization And Fiscal Stance In Selected Developing Countries: A Granger Causality Approach In Var Framework," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 134-159, June.
    6. Saira Arsh & Javaria Sarwar & Sana Iftikhar, 2024. "An Empirical Analysis of Short Run and Long Run Association between Debt Servicing and External Debt in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 109-116.
    7. Arzoo Mushtaq & Shahnawaz Malik & Muhammad Hanif Akhtar, 2022. "Nonlinear Taylor Rule And Inflation-Targeting In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 185-197, June.
    8. William Gabriel Brafu-Insaidoo, 2019. "International reserves, external debt maturity and exchange rate volatility in Ghana," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 181-202, August.
    9. repec:aer:wpaper:335 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAŞ & Osman PEKER, 2017. "Ticari Dışa Açıklık ve Dış Ticaret Hadleri Dış Borçlanma Üzerinde Etkili mi? Türkiye İçin Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    11. Evan Lau & ALVINA SYN-YEE Lee & MOHAMMAD AFFENDY Arip, 2015. "Macroeconomics Determinants Of External Debt In Malaysia," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 14-26, December.
    12. Ozlem Ayvaz Kizilgol & Evren Ipek, 2014. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Relationship between Trade Openness and External Debt: Turkish Case," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(1), pages 42-58, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External Debt; Trade Liberalization; ARDL Bounds Testing; Error Correction Method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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