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Determinants and Sustainability of External Debt: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Islamic Countries

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  • Waheed, Abdul
  • Abbas, Shujaat

Abstract

This study analyses the determinants and sustainability of external debt of selected Islamic countries. The study uses panel data of ten oil & gas exporting countries and nine oil & gas importing countries from 2004 to 2016. For oil & gas exporting Islamic countries, economic growth, central government revenue, FDI, and population have a negative effect on external debt, while central government expenditure, trade openness, inflation, and current account balance have a positive effect on external debt. For oil & gas importing Islamic countries, economic growth, central government revenue, current account balance, domestic investment, and labour force have a negative effect on external debt; whereas, FDI and foreign exchange reserve have a positive effect on external debt. The result of sustainability analysis shows that for many oil & gas importing Islamic countries, the actual debt is more than their expected debt based on their macroeconomic performance. For oil & gas exporting Islamic countries, the situation is not as alarming and their external debt position is still better, except few countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Waheed, Abdul & Abbas, Shujaat, 2021. "Determinants and Sustainability of External Debt: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Islamic Countries," MPRA Paper 107486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bacha, Edmar L., 1990. "A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 279-296, April.
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    3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
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    6. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447.
    7. Menbere Workie Tiruneh, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation Into the Determinants of External Indebtedness," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(3), pages 261-277.
    8. Zafar, Sabahat & Butt, Muhammad Sabihuddin, 2008. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on External Debt Burden: Econometric Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 9548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External debt; Debt sustainability; Panel data; Oil & gas exporters; Oil & gas importers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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