IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/95302.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock market predictability: Non-synchronous trading or inefficient markets? Evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India

Author

Listed:
  • Camilleri, Silvio John
  • Green, Christopher J.

Abstract

Purpose: The main objective of this study is to obtain new empirical evidence on non-synchronous trading effects through modelling the predictability of market indices. Design / Methodology / Approach: We test for lead-lag effects between the Indian Nifty and Nifty Junior indices using Pesaran-Timmermann tests and Granger-Causality. We then propose a simple test on overnight returns, in order to infer whether the observed predictability is mainly attributable to non-synchronous trading or some form of inefficiency. Findings: The evidence suggests that non-synchronous trading is a better explanation for the observed predictability in the Indian stock market. Research limitations / implications: The indication that non-synchronous trading effects become more pronounced in high-frequency data, suggests that prior studies using daily data may underestimate the impacts of non-synchronicity. Originality / value: The originality of the paper rests on various important contributions: (a) we look at overnight returns to infer whether predictability is more attributable to non-synchronous trading or to some form of inefficiency, (b) we investigate the impacts of non-synchronicity in terms of lead-lag effects rather than serial correlation, and (c) we use high-frequency data which gauges the impacts of non-synchronicity during less active parts of the trading day.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilleri, Silvio John & Green, Christopher J., 2014. "Stock market predictability: Non-synchronous trading or inefficient markets? Evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India," MPRA Paper 95302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95302
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95302/1/MPRA_paper_95302.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    2. DeQing Diane Li & Kenneth Yung, 2006. "Stock return autocorrelation and institutional investors: the case of American depository receipt," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 45-58, February.
    3. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    4. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    5. Osamah AlKhazali, 2011. "Does infrequent trading make a difference on stock market efficiency?," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(2), pages 96-110, June.
    6. Conrad, Jennifer & Gultekin, Mustafa N & Kaul, Gautam, 1991. "Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 597-622.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    9. Atchison, Michael D & Butler, Kirt C & Simonds, Richard R, 1987. "Nonsynchronous Security Trading and Market Index Autocorrelation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 111-118, March.
    10. Chiao, Chaoshin & Hung, Ken & Lee, Cheng F., 2004. "The price adjustment and lead-lag relations between stock returns: microstructure evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 709-731, December.
    11. Andrew Clare & Gareth Morgan & Stephen Thomas, 2002. "Direct Evidence of Non-trading on the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1&2), pages 29-53.
    12. Taufiq Choudhry, 2000. "Day of the week effect in emerging Asian stock markets: evidence from the GARCH model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 235-242.
    13. Day, Theodore E. & Wang, Pingying, 2002. "Dividends, nonsynchronous prices, and the returns from trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 431-454, November.
    14. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    15. Kadlec, Gregory B & Patterson, Douglas M, 1999. "A Transactions Data Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 609-630.
    16. Gary Gang Tian & Guang Hua Wan, 2004. "Interaction among China-related stocks: evidence from a causality test with a new procedure," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 67-72.
    17. George Papachristou, 1999. "Stochastic behaviour of the Athens Stock Exchange: a case of institutional nonsynchronous trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 239-250.
    18. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew P & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. "A Tale of Three Schools: Insights on Autocorrelations of Short-Horizon Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 539-573.
    19. Poshakwale, Sunil & Theobald, Michael, 2004. "Market capitalisation, cross-correlations, the lead/lag structure and microstructure effects in the Indian stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 385-400, October.
    20. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    21. Nikitas Niarchos & Christos Alexakis, 1998. "Stock market prices, 'causality' and efficiency: evidence from the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 167-174.
    22. Green, Christopher J & Joujon, Emmanuel, 2000. "Unified Tests of Causality and Cost of Carry: The Pricing of the French Stock Index Futures Contract," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 121-140, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Silvio John Camilleri & Ritienne Farrugia, 2018. "The Risk-Adjusted Performance of Alternative Investment Funds and UCITS: A Comparative Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Silvio John Camilleri, 2005. "Can a Stock Index be Less Efficient than Underlying Shares? An Analysis Using Malta Stock Exchange Data," Finance 0507006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Camilleri, Silvio John & Galea, Francelle, 2019. "The Determinants of Securities Trading Activity: Evidence from four European Equity Markets," MPRA Paper 95298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Camilleri, Silvio John, 2015. "Do call auctions curtail price volatility? Evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India," MPRA Paper 95301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Camilleri, Silvio John & Scicluna, Nicolanne & Bai, Ye, 2019. "Do stock markets lead or lag macroeconomic variables? Evidence from select European countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 170-186.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silvio John Camilleri & Christopher J. Green, 2005. "An Analysis of the Impacts of Non-Synchronous Trading On," Finance 0504020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yoshiro Tsutsui & Kenjiro Hirayama & Takahiro Tanaka & Nobutaka Uesugi, 2007. "Special Quotes Invoke Autocorrelation in Japanese Stock Prices," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 369-386, December.
    3. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March.
    4. Silvio John Camilleri, 2005. "Can a Stock Index be Less Efficient than Underlying Shares? An Analysis Using Malta Stock Exchange Data," Finance 0507006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Yu, Chih-Hsien & Wu, Chunchi, 2001. "Economic sources of asymmetric cross-correlation among stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 19-40.
    6. Anderson, Robert M. & Eom, Kyong Shik & Hahn, Sang Buhm & Park, Jong-Ho, 2007. "Stock Return Autocorrelation is Not Spurious," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2k7414sv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    7. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L. & Steeley, James M., 2014. "Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 56-77.
    8. Weigand, Robert A., 1996. "Trading volume and firm size: A test of the information spillover hypothesis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 47-58.
    9. Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 1997. "Return autocorrelation and institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-131, October.
    10. Hurvich, Cliiford & Wang, Yi, 2006. "A Pure-Jump Transaction-Level Price Model Yielding Cointegration, Leverage, and Nonsynchronous Trading Effects," MPRA Paper 1413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.
    13. Robert A. Weigand, 1996. "Trading volume and firm size: A test of the information spillover hypothesis," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 47-58, December.
    14. Baltussen, Guido & van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Da, Zhi, 2019. "Indexing and stock market serial dependence around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 26-48.
    15. Drakos, Anastassios A., 2016. "Does the relationship between small and large portfolios’ returns confirm the lead–lag effect? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 546-561.
    16. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Wang, David K., 2016. "Information content of investor trading behavior: Evidence from Taiwan index options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 149-160.
    17. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2013. "Think About Tomorrow Morning: Opening Stock Returns May Show Reversals," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 16(50), pages 51-64, December.
    18. Zaremba, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Short-term momentum (almost) everywhere," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    20. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-Synchronous Trading; Stock Markets; National Stock Exchange of India; Granger-Causality; Pesaran-Timmermann test.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.