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Interaction among China-related stocks: evidence from a causality test with a new procedure

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  • Gary Gang Tian
  • Guang Hua Wan

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate a causal relationship among five different indices of shares issued by Chinese firms, A-, B- and H-shares listed in China and Hong Kong. This article re-examines the interactions among these China-related stocks using daily time series data by constructing a vector autoregresion (VAR) model. A new Granger no-causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto was applied to test the causality link among these five stock indices. The results suggest that the 'closed' B-share markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen exhibit causality relations with each other during the entire period between 1993 and 1999 but this pattern does not exist within A-share markets. Furthermore, evidence is also found of Granger causality running from Hong Kong H-shares to B-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and from Shanghai B-shares to all the rest Chinese markets for the post-1996 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Gang Tian & Guang Hua Wan, 2004. "Interaction among China-related stocks: evidence from a causality test with a new procedure," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 67-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:1:p:67-72
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000164239
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    2. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    3. John Fernald & John H. Rogers, 2002. "Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 416-432, August.
    4. Martin Laurence & Francis Cai & Sun Qian, 1997. "Weak-form Efficiency and Causality Tests in Chinese Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 291-307, December.
    5. Andy C. W. Chui & Chuck C. Y. Kwok, 1998. "Cross-Autocorrelation Between A Shares And B Shares In The Chinese Stock Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 333-353, September.
    6. Chui, Andy C W & Kwok, Chuck C Y, 1998. "Cross-Autocorrelation between A Shares and B Shares in the Chinese Stock Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 333-353, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhuo Qiao & Keith Lam, 2011. "Granger causal relations among Greater China stock markets: a nonlinear perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1437-1450.
    2. Ai-Chi Hsu & Show-Yen Lai & Lien-Hui Chao, 2014. "Information Transmission Effects between A and H Dual Listing Shares," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(5), pages 27-40.
    3. Silvio John Camilleri & Christopher J. Green, 2005. "An Analysis of the Impacts of Non-Synchronous Trading On," Finance 0504020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Qiao, Zhuo & Li, Yuming & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Policy change and lead-lag relations among China's segmented stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-289, July.
    5. Huyghebaert, Nancy & Wang, Lihong, 2010. "The co-movement of stock markets in East Asia: Did the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis really strengthen stock market integration?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 98-112, March.
    6. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Stephen Morgan, 2008. "Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Bank Stock Prices in China: A Causality Analysis," Discussion Papers 08/25, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    7. Camilleri, Silvio John & Green, Christopher J., 2014. "Stock market predictability: Non-synchronous trading or inefficient markets? Evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India," MPRA Paper 95302, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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