IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/92988.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation targeting and the pass-through effect: The case of Mongolia

Author

Listed:
  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki

Abstract

This paper aims to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between inflation targeting and the pass-through effect from exchange rate to consumer prices, focusing on the case of Mongolia. The study estimates a vector-autoregressive model, and examines the impulse responses of consumer prices to the shock of exchange rate for the pre-inflation targeting period and the post-inflation targeting period. The empirical analysis identified the existence of the pass-through effect during the pre-inflation targeting period and the loss of the pass-through during the post-inflation targeting period. It was speculated that the loss of the pass-through comes from the “forward-looking” monetary policy rule in Mongolian inflation targeting, so that it can work on the expectations of domestic agents such that they are less inclined to change prices in response to a given exchange rate shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2019. "Inflation targeting and the pass-through effect: The case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 92988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92988
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/92988/1/MPRA_paper_92988.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lanzafame, Matteo & Nogueira, Reginaldo, 2013. "Inflation targeting and interest rates," MPRA Paper 46153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dramane Coulibaly & Hubert Kempf, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting decrease Exchange Rate Pass-through in Emerging Countries ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00497446, HAL.
    4. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    5. Salsa Dilla & Noer Azam Achsani & Lukytawati Anggraeni, 2017. "Do Inflation Targeting Really Reduced Exchange Rate Pass-through?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 444-452.
    6. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    7. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Dube, Smile, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) and Inflation-Targeting (IT): Evidence from South Africa - Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting: evidenze dal Sud Africa," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(2), pages 121-150.
    9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    10. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Castillo, Paul & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2012. "Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1154-1166.
    11. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Woong-Ki Sohn, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Pass-through Rate in East Asian Economies," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 139-159, June.
    12. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Chapters, in: Matías Vernengo (ed.), Monetary Integration and Dollarization, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    14. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2018. "Monetary policy rule under inflation targeting: the case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 86132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Mesa Wanasilp, 2018. "Monetary Policy Rule and its Performance under Inflation Targeting in Thailand," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 19-28.
    16. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1-11, October.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    18. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    19. Reza Siregar & Siwei Goo, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Policy: The Experiences Of Indonesia And Thailand," CAMA Working Papers 2008-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    21. Jaewoo Lee, 1997. "The Response Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Market Concentration In A Small Economy: The Evidence From Korea," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 142-145, February.
    22. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting on Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: A Case Study of South Africa," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(6), pages 1-4.
    23. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Khishigjargal, Erdenechuluun, 2018. "Monetary Policy Rule under Inflation Targeting in Mongolia," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 22(4), pages 531-555, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Jambaldorj Bolortuya, 2019. "Inflation Targeting and the Pass-through Effect in Mongolia," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 57-71, June.
    2. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Woong-Ki Sohn, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Pass-through Rate in East Asian Economies," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 139-159, June.
    3. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2018. "Monetary policy rule under inflation targeting: the case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 86132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1-11, October.
    5. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    6. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Wanasilp, Mesa, 2017. "Monetary policy rule and its performance under inflation targeting: the evidence of Thailand," MPRA Paper 83544, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Chizuru Kato, 2011. "Assessing the performance of inflation targeting in East Asian economies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 25(1), pages 93-102, May.
    8. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Mesa Wanasilp, 2018. "Monetary Policy Rule and its Performance under Inflation Targeting in Thailand," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 19-28.
    9. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Namjil Enkhbaatar, 2019. "Stock Market and Macroeconomic Policies in Mongolia," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 21-39.
    10. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Kato, Chizuru, 2011. "東アジア諸国のインフレターゲットと日本への示唆 [Inflation targeting in east Asia economies and its implication to Japan]," MPRA Paper 64407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2018. "Stock market and macroeconomic policies: The case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 90686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mesa Wanasilp, 2021. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging ASEAN Economies: Adaptability of Taylor Principle," International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management (IJABIM), IGI Global, vol. 12(3), pages 255-274, July.
    13. Felipe Santos Tostes & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2016. "Credibility On Pass-Through In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 022, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Sirag, Abdalla & Soon, Siew-Voon, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-259.
    15. Arshid Hussain PEER & Mirza Allim BAIG, 2023. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through in India: Lessons from international experience," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(634), S), pages 239-254, Spring.
    16. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Kenichi Tamegawa & Mesa Wanasilp, 2020. "Taylor Principle under Inflation Targeting in Emerging ASEAN Economies: GMM and DSGE Approaches," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 35-47.
    17. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.
    18. Lucotte, Yannick, 2010. "The choice of adopting inflation targeting in emerging economies: Do domestic institutions matter?," MPRA Paper 27118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mar𨁌orena Mar𑁥l Cristo & Marta G -Puig, 2013. "Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the US dollar?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(31), pages 4395-4411, November.
    20. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2020. "Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle in Emerging ASEAN Economies: GMM and DSGE Approaches," MPRA Paper 100847, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Targeting; Pass-through Effect; Mongolia; Vector Autoregressive Model; Forward-looking Rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92988. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.