IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/79792.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Efficient Market Conjecture

Author

Listed:
  • Campos Dias de Sousa, Ricardo Emanuel
  • Howden, David

Abstract

Although commonly misconstrued as a statement about the “correctness” of prices, the Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH) is a statement about their informational content. The aftermath of the recent recession has brought renewed skepticism to EMH, even leading some to redefine it as the inefficient market hypothesis. We demonstrate that such a change is misguided, as it changes the nature of the input (i.e., the market) but not the truth value of the statement (i.e., whether markets are efficient). We further outline several logical fallacies of the Hypothesis which negate its usefulness. We conclude by showing that the EMH was never a hypothesis and as such is best considered a conjecture. As a conjecture, it is increasingly difficult to reconcile with actual market behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Campos Dias de Sousa, Ricardo Emanuel & Howden, David, 2015. "The Efficient Market Conjecture," MPRA Paper 79792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79792/1/MPRA_paper_79792.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philipp Bagus & David Howden, 2011. "Monetary equilibrium and price stickiness: Causes, consequences and remedies," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 383-402, December.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    3. Jae-Suk Yang & Wooseop Kwak & Taisei Kaizoji & In-mook Kim, 2008. "Increasing market efficiency in the stock markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 61(2), pages 241-246, January.
    4. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
    5. Roger E.A. Farmer & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2012. "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World," NBER Working Papers 18647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Philipp Bagus & David Howden, 2012. "Monetary equilibrium and price stickiness: A rejoinder," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 271-277, September.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    8. John M. Griffin, 2002. "Are the Fama and French Factors Global or Country Specific?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 783-803.
    9. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    10. Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "How Did Financial-Crisis-Based Criticisms of Market Efficiency Get It So Wrong?," Working Papers CEB 09-048.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    12. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    13. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q III), pages 36-58.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    15. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-46, March.
    16. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2013. "The Unloved Dollar Standard: From Bretton Woods to the Rise of China," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199937004.
    17. Howden, David, 2009. "Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis and Mises' Evenly Rotating Economy: Comparative Constructs," MPRA Paper 79586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. David Howden, 2014. "Knowledge flows and insider trading," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 45-55, March.
    19. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    20. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    21. Stephen F. Le Roy, 2004. "Rational Exuberance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 783-804, September.
    22. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    23. Shostak, Frank, 1997. "In Defense of Fundamental Analysis: A Critique of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 27-45.
    24. Grossman, Sanford J, 1976. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Trades Have Diverse Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 573-585, May.
    25. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    26. Ross, Stephen A, 1987. "The Interrelations of Finance and Economics: Theoretical Perspectives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 29-34, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leo Julianto & Irwan Adi Ekaputra, 2020. "Max-Effect in the Indonesian Market," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 19-27.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Handro & Bogdan Dima, 2024. "Analyzing Financial Markets Efficiency: Insights from a Bibliometric and Content Review," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 119-175, May.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    3. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    4. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    5. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    6. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare [Some particularities of the financial variables evolution]," MPRA Paper 73481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2016.
    7. Rompotis, Gerasimos G., 2011. "Testing weak-form efficiency of exchange traded funds market," MPRA Paper 36020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "Financial crises in efficient markets: How fundamentalists fuel volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 105-111.
    9. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2013. "Corporate campaign contributions and abnormal stock returns after presidential elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 285-307, July.
    10. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
    11. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Grinblatt, Mark, 2021. "Global market inefficiencies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 234-259.
    12. Yin, Libo & Liao, Huiyi, 2021. "Big is brilliant: Understanding the Chinese size effect through profitability shocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Ang, Wei Rong & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Performance and performance persistence of socially responsible investment funds in Europe and North America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 254-266.
    14. Taufiq Choudhry & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2015. "Level of efficiency in the UK equity market: empirical study of the effects of the global financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, February.
    15. Tienyu Hwang & Simon Gao & Heather Owen, 2014. "Markowitz efficiency and size effect: evidence from the UK stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 721-750, November.
    16. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    17. Kamal, Mona, 2014. "Studying the Validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) after the 25th of January Revolution," MPRA Paper 54708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Rajesh Elangovan & Francis Gnanasekar Irudayasamy & Satyanarayana Parayitam, 2022. "Month-of-the-Year Effect: Empirical Evidence from Indian Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 449-476, September.
    19. Parthajit Kayal & Sayanti Mondal, 2020. "Speed of Price Adjustment in Indian Stock Market: A Paradox," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 453-476, December.
    20. Hooi Hooi Lean & Fabio Pizzutilo, 2021. "Performances and risk of socially responsible investments across regions during crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3556-3568, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient markets; informational efficiency; EMH; equity returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.