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The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World

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  • Farmer, Roger
  • Nourry, Carine
  • Venditti, Alain

Abstract

Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic discount factor in real world data. Our work provides such an explanation. We do not rely on frictions, market incompleteness or transactions costs of any kind. Instead, we modify a simple stochastic representative agent model by allowing for birth and death and by allowing for heterogeneity in agents' discount factors. We show that these two minor and realistic changes to the timeless Arrow-Debreu paradigm are sufficient to invalidate the implication that competitive financial markets efficiently allocate risk. Our work demonstrates that financial markets, by their very nature, cannot be Pareto efficient, except by chance. Although individuals in our model are rational; markets are not.

Suggested Citation

  • Farmer, Roger & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World," CEPR Discussion Papers 9283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9283
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-03-16 00:50:06

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    Cited by:

    1. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2016. "Pricing Assets in an Economy with Two Types of People," NBER Working Papers 22228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Roger Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk, 2016. "The Theory of Unconventional Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 22135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Roger Farmer, 2014. "Asset Prices in a Lifecycle Economy," NBER Working Papers 19958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Thomas Hintermaier & Winfried Koeniger, 2018. "Household debt and crises of confidence," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), pages 1489-1542, November.
    5. Campos Dias de Sousa, Ricardo Emanuel & Howden, David, 2015. "The Efficient Market Conjecture," MPRA Paper 79792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Beniamino Moro, 2013. "The Run On Repo and the Liquidity Shortage Problems of the Current Global Financial Crisis: Europe vs. The US," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 41-77, January.
    7. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare [Some particularities of the financial variables evolution]," MPRA Paper 73481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2016.
    8. Benjamin Keefer, 2016. "Sensitization and Extraordinary Persistence," Working Papers 2016-01, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    9. Dmitry Plotnikov, 2014. "Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2014/077, International Monetary Fund.
    10. de la Torre, Augusto & Ize, Alain, 2013. "The foundations of macroprudential regulation : a conceptual roadmap," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6575, The World Bank.
    11. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    12. Farmer, Roger, 2013. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis: an idea past its sell-by date," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 244-256.
    13. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2014. "Financial Stability and the Role of the Financial Policy Committee," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 35-43, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Efficient markets; Excess volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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