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The Real Exchange Rate, the Ghanaian Trade Balance, and the J-curve

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  • Njindan Iyke, Bernard
  • Ho, Sin-Yu

Abstract

Using linear and nonlinear specifications, we studied the effects of real exchange rate changes on the trade balance of Ghana during the period 1986Q1 to 2016Q3. We found no evidence in support of the short- and long-run impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance in the linear specification. The J-curve is refuted in this case. In contrast, exchange rate changes affected the trade balance in the nonlinear specification. Depreciations improve the trade balance in the long run, but appreciations have no impact. Hence, exchange rate changes have nonlinear effects on the trade balance. This is consistent with the J-curve phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Real Exchange Rate, the Ghanaian Trade Balance, and the J-curve," MPRA Paper 78211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78211
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    4. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and domestic investment in Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1362157-136, January.
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    6. Folorunsho M. Ajide & James T. Dada, 2023. "Poverty, entrepreneurship, and economic growth in Africa," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, June.
    7. Yaya Keho, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Dynamics in Cote d Ivoire," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 61-70.
    8. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
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    10. Udi Joshua & Oladimeji M. Salami & Andrew A. Alola, 2020. "Toward the path of Economic Expansion in Nigeria: The Role of Trade Globalization," Working Papers 20/009, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade balance; J-curve; real exchange rates; nonlinearities; Ghana.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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