IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/78040.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Quantitative Assessment of the Proposed China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement

Author

Listed:
  • Fuenfzig, Michael

Abstract

This paper discusses the proposed China-Georgia free trade agreement and provides quantitative estimates of its economic effects. The proposed free trade agreement would more than double trade flows between China and Georgia over a time horizon of ten to fifteen years, and would increase Georgian GDP per capita by about 1.5 percent. Chinese exports to Georgia would increase by about 20 to 30 percent, and Chinese GDP per capita would remain virtually unchanged. While these estimates have to be treated with extreme caution, they should serve as a motivation to continue negotiations on the free trade agreement.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuenfzig, Michael, 2016. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Proposed China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 78040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78040/1/MPRA_paper_78040.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, January.
    2. Olena Ivus & Aaron Strong, 2007. "Modeling Approaches to the Analysis of Trade Policy: Computable General Equilibrium and Gravity Models," Chapters, in: William A. Kerr & James D. Gaisford (ed.), Handbook on International Trade Policy, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2010. "A Gravity Model of Net Benefits of EU Membership : The Case of Ukraine," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 676-702.
    4. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    5. Piermartini, Roberta & Teh, Robert, 2005. "Demystifying modelling methods for trade policy," WTO Discussion Papers 10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    7. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    8. Beshkar, Mostafa & Bond, Eric W. & Rho, Youngwoo, 2015. "Tariff binding and overhang: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 1-13.
    9. William A. Kerr & James D. Gaisford (ed.), 2007. "Handbook on International Trade Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3521.
    10. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nino Papachashvili & Lela Jamagidze & Nino Melitauri, 2018. "The Analysis of Export Drivers and Impediments Using Extended Gravity Model (The Case of Georgia)," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 69-85, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    3. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    4. Luisa Kinzius & Alexander Sandkamp & Erdal Yalcin, 2019. "Trade protection and the role of non-tariff barriers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 603-643, November.
    5. Yuan Li & John C. Beghin, 2017. "A meta-analysis of estimates of the impact of technical barriers to trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 4, pages 63-77, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Hoekman, Bernard & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Trade Policy, Trade Costs, and Developing Country Trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2069-2079.
    7. Shingal, Anirudh, 2013. "Revisiting the trade effects of services agreements," MPRA Paper 51243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jayjit Roy, 2014. "On the robustness of the trade-inducing effects of trade agreements and currency unions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 253-304, August.
    9. Fugazza, Marco & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Measuring preferential market access," MPRA Paper 38565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    11. Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, 2013. "Revisiting the Effectiveness of African Economic Integration. A Meta-Analytic Review and Comparative Estimation Methods," Economics Working Papers 2013-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    13. Moelders, Florian, 2011. "Trade Persistence and the Limits of Trade Agreements," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 58, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    14. Eugene Bempong Nyantakyi & Steven Husted & Shuichiro Nishioka, 2015. "Trade Frictions and Market Access of Developing Countries: A Product-level Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 924-945, November.
    15. Valentina Raimondi & Chiara Falco & Daniele Curzi & Alessandro Olper, 2020. "Trade effects of geographical indication policy: The EU case," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 330-356, June.
    16. Bernard Hoekman & Ben Shepherd, 2017. "Services Productivity, Trade Policy and Manufacturing Exports," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 499-516, March.
    17. Mariarosaria Agostino & Francesco Trivieri, 2016. "European Wines Exports Towards Emerging Markets. The Role of Geographical Identity," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 233-256, June.
    18. Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Preferential trade agreements and the structure of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 385-409, September.
    19. Hendrik W. Kruse & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso, 2021. "Transfers in the gravity equation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 410-442, February.
    20. Konya, Laszlo & Matyas, Laszlo & Harris, Mark, 2011. "GATT/WTO membership does promote international trade after all – Some new empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 34978, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Nov 2011.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free trade agreement; impact assessment; gravity equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.