IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/75633.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Degree of Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Author

Listed:
  • Ülke, Volkan

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of the degree of currency substitution on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and domestic prices in Turkey, using monthly data between 1998 and 2013. The recursive interacted vector autoregressive (IVAR) specification of Towbin and Weber (2013) is employed, based on McCarthy’s (1999) distribution chain model. Currency substitution is treated as an interaction term in the IVAR specification. The empirical evidence suggests that high currency substitution increases the effect of ERPT to import and domestic prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ülke, Volkan, 2015. "The Degree of Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 75633, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Dec 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75633/1/MPRA_paper_75633.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1982. "Currency Substitution and Instability in the World Dollar Standard," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 320-333, June.
    2. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2011. "Doviz Kuru ve Ithalat Fiyatlarinin Enflasyona Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1114, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    4. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    5. Nikolay Gueorguiev, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Romania," IMF Working Papers 2003/130, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ahmet Aysan & Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc, 2014. "Managing short-term capital flows in new central banking: unconventional monetary policy framework in Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 45-69, June.
    7. repec:cuf:journl:y:2015:v:16:i:1:reinhart:rogoff:savastano is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The hysteresis of currency substitution: Currency risk vs. network externalities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 224-235, March.
    9. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    10. Elif C. Arbatli, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Looking for Asymmetries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(2), pages 85-124.
    11. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Throught to Domestic Prices: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 254, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    13. Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2010. "Limits of Floats: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt and Import Structure," IHEID Working Papers 01-2010, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jan 2010.
    14. Hakan KARA & Fethi ÖĞÜNÇ, 2012. "Döviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarının yurt içi fiyatlara etkisi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(317), pages 09-28.
    15. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    16. Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    17. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    18. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?," Working Papers 0510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Prock, Jerry & Soydemir, Gokce A. & Abugri, Benjamin A., 2003. "Currency substitution: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 415-430, June.
    21. Oner Guncavdi & Benan Zeki Orbay, 2004. "The Effects of Foreign Exchange Rate Movements on Domestic Prices in the Turkish Manufacturing Industry," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 1(1), pages 41-56, Julio-Dic.
    22. Hakan Kara & Fethi ÃÄünç, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 52-66, November.
    23. M. Ege Yazgan & Ilknur Zer-Toker, 2010. "Currency substitution, policy rule and pass-through: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2365-2378.
    24. Janine Aron & Ronald Macdonald & John Muellbauer, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 101-143, January.
    25. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-51, May.
    26. Nazli Toraganli, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Exposure in the Turkish Economy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 10(1), pages 47-69.
    27. Civcir, Irfan & Akçaglayan, AnIl, 2010. "Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 339-354, May.
    28. Isaac, Allan G., 1989. "Exchange rate volatility and currency substitution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 277-284, June.
    29. Matthew Kofi Ocran, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices: The Case of South Africa," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4), pages 291-306.
    30. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2683, Banco de la Republica.
    31. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger & Umit Ozlale & Burc Tuger & Devrim Yavuz & Eray M. Yucel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Has it Changed and to What Extent?," Working Papers 0504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    32. Hakan Kara & Hande Küçük‐Tuğer & Ümit Özlale & Burç Tuğer & Eray M. Yücel, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Pass‐Through: Evidence From The Turkish Economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(2), pages 206-225, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    2. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    3. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño & Pablo Hernán Mendieta Ossio, 2006. "Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada: el caso de Bolivia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-39, enero-mar.
    5. Cengiz TUNC & Mustafa Kilinc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through In A Small Open Economy: A Structural Var Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 410-422, October.
    6. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "What Do We Know of Exchange Rate Pass Through?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:5, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    7. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Caglar Yunculer, 2011. "Pass-Through of External Factors into Price Indicators In Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 71-84.
    9. Ganapati Mendali & Sanjukta Das, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(3), pages 135-156, August.
    10. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    12. Rucha R. Ranadive & L.G. Burange, 2015. "Transmission Mechanism of Exchange Rate Pass-through in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(4), pages 263-283, November.
    13. Dincer Dedeoglu & Huseyin Kaya, 2015. "Model Belirsizligi Altinda Doviz Kurunun Enflasyona Etkisi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(2), pages 79-93.
    14. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jiang, Jiadan & Kim, David, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 900-912.
    16. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through in central and eastern European EU Member States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, March.
    17. Julio-Román, Juan Manuel, 2019. "Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Time-Varying Vector Auto-Regression with Residual Stochastic Volatility Approach," Working papers 21, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    18. Aurelijus Dabušinskas, 2003. "Exchange rate pass-through to Estonian prices," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2003-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Dec 2003.
    19. Paul Gaggl, 2009. "The Role of Exchange Rate Movements for Prices in the Euro Area," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 83-103.
    20. Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; currency substitution; inflation; interacted VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.