IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tcb/cebare/v15y2015i2p79-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Model Belirsizligi Altinda Doviz Kurunun Enflasyona Etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Dincer Dedeoglu
  • Huseyin Kaya

Abstract

Bu calismada Turkiye’de doviz kurunun enflasyon geciskenligi, model belirsizligi dikkate alinarak incelenmektedir. 2003-2013 donemini kapsayan calismada geciskenligin analizi, yazinda sikca kullanilan uretim zinciri boyunca fiyatlamayi esas alan bir VAR sistemi cercevesinde gerceklestirilmistir. Alternatif VAR modelleri dikkate alinarak tahmin edilen kur geciskenligi katsayilari yuzde 4-8 araliginda bulunmaktadir. Elde edilen sonuclar kur geciskenligi tahmininde model belirsizligi olduguna isaret etmektedir. Model belirsizligini dikkate almak icin Bayesyen ortalama yontemi kullanilmis ve geciskenlik katsayisi yuzde 7,5 bulunmustur.

Suggested Citation

  • Dincer Dedeoglu & Huseyin Kaya, 2015. "Model Belirsizligi Altinda Doviz Kurunun Enflasyona Etkisi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(2), pages 79-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:15:y:2015:i:2:p:79-93
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2015/Volume+15-2/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caglar Yunculer, 2011. "Pass-Through of External Factors into Price Indicators In Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 71-84.
    2. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    4. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?," Working Papers 0510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
    6. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2011. "Doviz Kuru ve Ithalat Fiyatlarinin Enflasyona Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1114, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    8. Elif C. Arbatli, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Looking for Asymmetries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(2), pages 85-124.
    9. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2005. "Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada?," Staff Working Papers 05-29, Bank of Canada.
    10. Huseyin Kaya, 2013. "On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case," Working Papers 010, Bahcesehir University, Betam, revised Mar 2013.
    11. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460.
    12. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    13. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Mr. Marco Rossi & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2002/204, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jeannine Bailliu & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Spring), pages 19-28.
    16. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
    2. Ozkan, Ibrahim & Erden, Lutfi, 2015. "Time-varying nature and macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate pass-through," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 56-66.
    3. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    4. Nguyen Van Phuc & Vo Hong Duc, 2021. "Macroeconomics Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass-Through: New Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 5-20, January.
    5. Antonio Forte, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_08, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    6. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Reginaldo P. Nogueira Júnior, 2010. "Is low inflation really causing the decline in exchange rate pass-through?," Studies in Economics 1002, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. Jinbin Wang & Nan Li, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through: The case of China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 356-374, September.
    8. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    9. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
    10. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira, Jr., 2014. "A causality test of inflation environment and lower exchange rate pass-through," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1679-1686.
    12. Capistrán Carlos & Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2011-12, Banco de México.
    13. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2016_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Simola, Heli, 2018. "The pass-through to consumer prices in CIS economies: The role of exchange rates, commodities and other common factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 186-217.
    16. Faryna, Oleksandr, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through and cross-country spillovers: Some evidence from Ukraine and Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2013. "Do exchange rates affect consumer prices? A comparative analysis for Australia, China and India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 128-138.
    18. Fatma Marrakchi Charfi & Mohamed Kadria, 2016. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through Transmission To Prices: An Svar Model For Tunisia," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(04), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Haroon Mumtaz & Ozlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through into U.K. import prices: evidence from disaggregated data," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue June.
    20. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Simola, Heli, 2018. "The pass-through to consumer prices in CIS economies: The role of exchange rates, commodities and other common factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 186-217.
    21. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Doviz kuru; Geciskenlik; VAR; Model belirsizligi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:15:y:2015:i:2:p:79-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.