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Distributional Risk, Stochastic Volatility and Precautionary Savings

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  • Suen, Richard M. H.

Abstract

This paper analyses the optimal saving behaviour of a risk-averse and prudent consumer who faces two sources of income risk: risk as described by a given probability distribution and risk in the distribution itself. The latter is captured by the randomness in the parameters underlying the probability distribution and is referred to as distributional risk. Stochastic volatility, which generally refers to the randomness in the variance, can be viewed as a form of distributional risk. Necessary and sufficient conditions by which an increase in distributional risk will induce the consumer to save more are derived under two specifications of preferences: expected utility preferences and Selden/Kreps-Porteus preferences. The connection (or lack of) between these conditions and stochastic volatility is addressed. The additional conditions under which a prudent consumer will save more under greater volatility risk are identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Suen, Richard M. H., 2016. "Distributional Risk, Stochastic Volatility and Precautionary Savings," MPRA Paper 72732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72732
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72732/1/MPRA_paper_72732.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic volatility; stochastic convexity; precautionary saving.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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