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An empirical investigation into the propensity of reckless decision making within the high pressure environment of Deal or No Deal

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Listed:
  • Whitle, Richard
  • Rae, Jonathan
  • Pyke, Chris

Abstract

This paper discusses human attitudes towards risk and the development of expected utility models, laying the foundations for the creation of prospect theory in 1979. It proceeds to analyse the decisions of contestants on the popular TV game show Deal or No Deal to attempt to observe any evidence of differing levels of risk aversion under losses and gains as predicted by prospect theory. The results reveal some evidence of decreased risk aversion in the domains of losses and gains, with contestants displaying behaviour consistent with the break-even and house-money effects. We conclude there may be enough evidence of variable reference points to warrant further investigation, and propose suggestions for further research

Suggested Citation

  • Whitle, Richard & Rae, Jonathan & Pyke, Chris, 2015. "An empirical investigation into the propensity of reckless decision making within the high pressure environment of Deal or No Deal," MPRA Paper 66832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66832
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/81396/8/MPRA_paper_81396.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thierry Post & Martijn J. van den Assem & Guido Baltussen & Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 38-71, March.
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Roger Hartley & Gauthier Lanot & Ian Walker, 2014. "Who Really Wants To Be A Millionaire? Estimates Of Risk Aversion From Gameshow Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 861-879, September.
    4. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    5. Bosch-Domenech, Antoni & Silvestre, Joaquim, 1999. "Does risk aversion or attraction depend on income? An experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 265-273, December.
    6. Beetsma, Roel M W J & Schotman, Peter C, 2001. "Measuring Risk Attitudes in a Natural Experiment: Data from the Television Game Show Lingo," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(474), pages 821-848, October.
    7. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Robert Gertner, 1993. "Game Shows and Economic Behavior: Risk-Taking on "Card Sharks"," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 507-521.
    9. Nguyen, Quang & Leung, PingSun, 2009. "Do Fishermen Have Different Attitudes Toward Risk? An Application of Prospect Theory to the Study of Vietnamese Fishermen," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1-21, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision making under uncertainty; behavioural economics; behavioural finance; biases & heuristics; Prospect Theory.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

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