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Future Contribution of Export and Import to GDP in Bangladesh: A Box-Jenkins Approach

Author

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  • Khan, Md. Tareq Ferdous
  • Kundu, Nobinkhor

Abstract

The paper provides evidence of inconceivable growth of the macro-economic indicators Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Export of Goods and Services (EXPORT) and Import of Goods and Services (IMPORT) over the past three decades. The percentage of GDP occupied by each of the EXPORT and IMPORT indicator is in significant level in recent time though their contribution were little in 1981. The time series analysis by Box-Jenkins approach based on data from 1981 to 2010 indicates that the growth of the indicators will continue in the future. The forecasted GDP demonstrate the huge expansion of the different sectors within the country by 2015. The future contribution of EXPORT in GDP demanded that EXPORT will be the significant contributor in the country’s economy. On the contrary, a significant percentage of GDP will continue to be used for import of goods and services in future.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Md. Tareq Ferdous & Kundu, Nobinkhor, 2012. "Future Contribution of Export and Import to GDP in Bangladesh: A Box-Jenkins Approach," MPRA Paper 65153, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65153
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shamshad Begum & Abul Shamsuddin, 1998. "Exports and economic growth in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 89-114.
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    6. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    7. Mohammad A. Hossain & Mohammad Alauddin, 2005. "Trade liberalization in Bangladesh: the process and its impact on macro variables particularly export expansion," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 127-150, September.
    8. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA Model; Growth; Trade Deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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