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Exports and economic growth in Bangladesh

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  • Shamshad Begum
  • Abul Shamsuddin

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of exports on economic growth in Bangladesh, based on a two-sector growth model. Using annual data for the period 1961-92, the article estimates an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model of economic growth, which is found to capture the volatility of the Bangladesh economy. The results suggest that an increase in the share of investment in GDP significantly increases the growth rate of GDP in normal years, but negligibly increases GDP growth in abnormal years. Abnormalities in the economy arise from war, political turmoil and natural disasters. The key finding is that export growth has significantly increased economic growth through its positive impact on total factor productivity in the economy. The contribution of exports to economic growth was more pronounced during 1982-90 when the government pursued a policy of trade liberalisation and structural reform, and political turmoil was not persistent. This finding is not sensitive to the choice of the model or the estimation technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Shamshad Begum & Abul Shamsuddin, 1998. "Exports and economic growth in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 89-114.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:35:y:1998:i:1:p:89-114
    DOI: 10.1080/00220389808422556
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    1. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1990. "Policies to Move from Stabilization to Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert C. M. Beyer & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2024. "Good enough for outstanding growth: The experience of Bangladesh in comparative perspective," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(2), March.
    2. Azmat Gani, 2019. "Globalisation and human development: Does export type matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 2235-2251, July.
    3. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    4. Ben Yedder, Nadia & El Weriemmi, Malek & Bakari, Sayef, 2023. "Boosting Economic Growth in Angola: Unveiling the Dynamics of Domestic Investments and Exports," MPRA Paper 119480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dawson, P.J., 2006. "The export-income relationship and trade liberalisation in Bangladesh," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 889-896, November.
    7. A. H. M. Shahriar & Al Amin Biswas & Nishat Rumaly & Md. Johir Rayhan & Mohammad Jahangir Alam & Uttam Golder, 2024. "Macroeconomic Stability in Bangladesh: Unraveling the Nexus between Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Export Dynamics through Nonlinear Modeling," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 174-181, October.
    8. Fugarolas, Guadalupe & Mañalich, Isis & Matesanz, David, 2007. "Are Exports Causing Growth? Evidence On International Trade Expansion In Cuba, 1960-2004," MPRA Paper 6323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    10. Shimu Afroza Ahammed & Islam Md. Shahidul, 2018. "Impacts of Macro Economic Variables on the RMG Export Growth of Bangladesh," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 32(1), pages 112-125, June.
    11. Emilio J. Medina-Smith, 2000. "Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Developing Countries? A Case Study Of Costa Rica," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 7, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    12. Mohammad A. Razzaque & Sayema Haque Bidisha & Bazlul Haque Khondker, 2017. "Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 12(1), pages 42-64, April.
    13. Saima Siddiqui & Sameena Zehra & Sadia Majeed & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2008. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: A Reinvestigation Using the Bounds Test," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 59-80, Jul-Dec.
    14. Maryam Asghari, 2012. "Environmental Kuznets Curve and Growth Source in Iran," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(5), pages 609-623, December.
    15. Khan, Md. Tareq Ferdous & Kundu, Nobinkhor, 2012. "Future Contribution of Export and Import to GDP in Bangladesh: A Box-Jenkins Approach," MPRA Paper 65153, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2012.
    16. Yaya Keho, 2018. "The Causal Nexus between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variables," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 335-344.
    17. Asmawi Hashim & Norimah Rambeli & Norasibah Abdul Jalil & Normala Zulkifli & Emilda Hashim & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim, 2019. "Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(5), pages 9-19, December.

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