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Determinants of long-term growth in India: a Keynesian approach

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  • Sushanta K. Mallick

    (The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, UK, smallick@riia.org)

Abstract

This paper attempts an eclectic synthesis on long-term growth, which integrates two standard models - the neoclassical model with the endogenous growth and export-led model of growth. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used for India from 1950 to 1995 using Johansen’s multivariate cointegration approach to derive latent equilibrium relationships, and the short-run error correction equations are then estimated. Two cointegrating relationships for real output and real private investment, respectively, were found. Output is determined by private investment, human capital, real interest rate and public investment. Private investment is driven by public investment, domestic credit to the private sector, real interest rate and human capital. This seems to support a McKinnon-Shaw model in the long run and a Keynesian/Structuralist view in the short run. The long-run model also validates the hypothesis that growth has not been export-led in India, rather it is growth-driven exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Sushanta K. Mallick, 2002. "Determinants of long-term growth in India: a Keynesian approach," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 2(4), pages 306-324, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:prodev:v:2:y:2002:i:4:p:306-324
    DOI: 10.1191/1464993402ps043ra
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    5. Anh Tru Nguyen, 2018. "The Relationship among Economic Growth, Trade, Unemployment, and Inflation in South Asia: A Vector Autoregressive Model Approach," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(2), pages 165-172.
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    7. Sushanta Mallick, 2006. "Policy instruments to avoid output collapse: an optimal control model for India," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 761-776.
    8. P. J. Dawson, 2005. "The export-income relationship: the case of India," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(1), pages 16-29, January.
    9. Nishija Unnikrishnan & Thomas Paul Kattookaran, 2020. "Impact of Public and Private Infrastructure Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from India," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 12(2), pages 119-138, December.
    10. Biru Paksha Paul & Anupam Das, 2012. "Export-led Growth in India and the Role of Liberalisation," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, February.
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