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Determinants of long-term growth in India: a Keynesian approach

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  • Sushanta K. Mallick

    (The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, UK, smallick@riia.org)

Abstract

This paper attempts an eclectic synthesis on long-term growth, which integrates two standard models - the neoclassical model with the endogenous growth and export-led model of growth. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used for India from 1950 to 1995 using Johansen’s multivariate cointegration approach to derive latent equilibrium relationships, and the short-run error correction equations are then estimated. Two cointegrating relationships for real output and real private investment, respectively, were found. Output is determined by private investment, human capital, real interest rate and public investment. Private investment is driven by public investment, domestic credit to the private sector, real interest rate and human capital. This seems to support a McKinnon-Shaw model in the long run and a Keynesian/Structuralist view in the short run. The long-run model also validates the hypothesis that growth has not been export-led in India, rather it is growth-driven exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Sushanta K. Mallick, 2002. "Determinants of long-term growth in India: a Keynesian approach," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 2(4), pages 306-324, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:prodev:v:2:y:2002:i:4:p:306-324
    DOI: 10.1191/1464993402ps043ra
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    2. Garikai Makuyana & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Public and private investment and economic growth in Malawi: an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 673-689, January.
    3. Sushil Kumar Haldar, 2009. "Economic Growth in India Revisited," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(1), pages 105-126, January.
    4. Makuyana, Garikai & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2017. "Public and private investment and economic growth in South Africa:An empirical investigation," Working Papers 22005, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    5. MAKUYANA, Garikai & ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M., 2018. "Public and Private Investment and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Dynamic Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(4), pages 503-526.
    6. Sushanta Mallick, 2006. "Policy instruments to avoid output collapse: an optimal control model for India," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 761-776.
    7. P. J. Dawson, 2005. "The export-income relationship: the case of India," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(1), pages 16-29, January.
    8. Makuyana, Garikai & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "Public and private investment and economic growth in Zimbabwe: An empirical test," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(01).
    9. Nishija Unnikrishnan & Thomas Paul Kattookaran, 2020. "Impact of Public and Private Infrastructure Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from India," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 12(2), pages 119-138, December.
    10. Biru Paksha Paul & Anupam Das, 2012. "Export-led Growth in India and the Role of Liberalisation," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, February.
    11. Eckehard Rosenbaum & Biagio Ciuffo, 2017. "Sustainability via Intergenerational Transfers in a Stock-Flow-Consistent Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 147-184, February.
    12. Biswajit Maitra, 2020. "Exploring Import-led Growth in India: Evidence from the Post-reform Period," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 87-113, June.
    13. Vatthanamixay Chansomphou & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "Foreign aid, foreign direct investment and economic growth of Lao PDR," IDEC DP2 Series 1-2, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    14. Bozhechkova, A.V. (Божечкова, А.В.) & Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena Vladimirovna (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена Владимировна), 2016. "The Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Loans to the Economic Growth of the Russian Federation in the Current Environment [Влияние Высоких Процентных Ставок По Заимствованиям На Экономический Рост Р," Working Papers 21310, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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