IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/64866.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Amarasekara, Chandranath

Abstract

Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework and utilising both recursive and structural specifications, this study analyses the effects of interest rate, money growth and the movements in nominal exchange rate on real GDP growth and inflation in Sri Lanka for the period from 1978 to 2005. The results of the recursive VARs are broadly in line with the established empirical findings, especially when the interest rate is considered the monetary policy variable. Following a positive innovation in interest rate, GDP growth and inflation decrease while the exchange rate appreciates. When money growth and exchange rate are used as policy indicators, the impact on GDP growth contrasts with established findings. However, as expected, an exchange rate appreciation has an immediate impact on the reduction of inflation. Interest rate innovations are persistent, supporting the view that the monetary authority adjusts interest rates gradually, while innovations in money growth and exchange rate appreciation are not persistent. Several puzzling results emerge from the study: for most sub-samples, inflation does not decline following a contractionary policy shock; innovations to money growth raises the interest rate; when inflation does respond, it reacts to monetary innovations faster than GDP growth does; and exchange rate appreciations almost always lead to an increase in GDP growth. The results from the semi-structural VARs, which impose identification restrictions only on the policy block, are not different from those obtained from recursive VARs. The results show that none of the sub-samples since 1978 can be identified with a particular targeting regime. In contrast, the interest rate, monetary aggregates and the exchange rate, contain important information in relation to the monetary policy stance. Based on this premise, a monetary policy index is estimated for Sri Lanka. The index displays that unanticipated monetary policy forms a smaller portion of monetary policy action in comparison to anticipated monetary policy. It is also observed that a decline in GDP growth is associated with anticipated policy with a short lag, while reductions in inflation are associated with both anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy with a longer lag of 28 to 36 months.

Suggested Citation

  • Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2008. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 64866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64866
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64866/1/MPRA_paper_64866.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 2001. "Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks in a Small Open Economy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(1), pages 81-107, February.
    4. RenÈ Garcia, 2002. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 102-119, January.
    5. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2006. "The Bank of Japan's operating procedures and the identification of monetary policy shocks: A reexamination using the Bernanke-Mihov approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 406-433, September.
    6. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    7. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-156, January.
    8. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    9. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
    10. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Inside Money, Outside Money, and Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1354-1386, November.
    12. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    13. Christopher A. Sims, 1993. "A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 179-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    15. Kevin D. Hoover & Steven M. Sheffrin (ed.), 1995. "Monetarism And The Methodology Of Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 232, March.
    16. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
    17. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    19. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    20. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    21. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-353, May.
    22. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    23. Villani, Mattias & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy using Bayesian Cointegrated Structural VARs," Working Paper Series 156, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    24. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, December.
    25. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    26. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
    27. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-1247, December.
    28. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    29. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    30. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
    32. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
    33. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    34. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
    35. Balázs Vonnák, 2005. "Estimating the Effect of Hungarian Monetary Policy within a Structural VAR Framework," MNB Working Papers 2005/01, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    36. Kasa, Ken & Popper, Helen, 1997. "Monetary Policy in Japan: A Structural VAR Analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 275-295, September.
    37. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
    38. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1998. "In Search of Monetary Policy Measures: The Case of Italy in the 1990s," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 57(2), pages 213-250, September.
    39. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    40. Ben S.C. Fung, 2002. "A VAR analysis of the effects of monetary policy in East Asia," BIS Working Papers 119, Bank for International Settlements.
    41. Gianluca Laganà & Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor‐Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 77-98, September.
    42. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    43. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1004-1009, December.
    44. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    45. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198, January.
    46. Boschen, John F & Mills, Leonard O, 1995. "The Relation between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 24-44, January.
    47. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chandranath Amarasekara & Rahul Anand & Kithsiri Ehelepola & Hemantha Ekanayake & Vishuddhi Jayawickrema & Sujeetha Jegajeevan & Csaba Kober & Tharindi Nugawela & Sergey Plotnikov & Adam Remo & Poongo, 2018. "An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2018/149, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ayesh Ariyasinghe & N. S. Cooray, 2021. "The Nexus Of Foreign Reserves, Exchange Rate And Inflation: Recent Empirical Evidence From Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 22(1), pages 29-72, March.
    3. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2013. "Monetary Policy and the Real Economy: A Structural VAR Approach for Sri Lanka," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-13, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    4. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Can Monetary Policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(2), June.
    5. Kishan Abeygunawardana & Chandranath Amarasekara & C. D. Tilakaratne, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(1), pages 21-38, March.
    6. Ha Thanh Le, 2015. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in Vietnam: A Structural VAR Analysis," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(1), pages 8-22.
    7. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Kenya:The role of money supply and interest rates," Working Papers 20712, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    8. Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2009. "Central Bank Objectives and Aggregate Disturbances," MPRA Paper 64868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rasika Perera & Masaru Ichihashi, 2016. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka," IDEC DP2 Series 6-6, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    10. Amankwah, Ernest & Atta Sarfo, Prince, 2019. "The causal linkages among money growth, inflaion and interest rates in Ghana," MPRA Paper 96485, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    2. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    3. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Pham The Anh, 2007. "Nominal Rigidities and The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in a Structural VAR Model," Working Papers 06, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    5. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    7. Elmer Sterken, 2005. "The Role of the Ifo Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 173-201, Springer.
    8. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    9. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
    10. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    11. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    12. James H. James & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," Working Papers 2005-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Forhad, Abdur Rahman & Homaifar, Ghassem A. & Salimullah, Abul Hasnat Muhammed, 2017. "Monetary Policy Transmission Effect On The Real Sector Of The Bangladesh Economy: An Svar Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 70(1), pages 25-46.
    15. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2012. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in a small open economy: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(3), pages 1037-1061, August.
    16. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    17. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
    18. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    19. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2014. "Monetary policy and the real economy: A structural VAR approach for Sri Lanka," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41-64, January.
    20. Shioji, Etsuro, 2000. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 22-42, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Economic Growth; Inflation; Central Banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.