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The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka

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  • Amarasekara, Chandranath

Abstract

Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework and utilising both recursive and structural specifications, this study analyses the effects of interest rate, money growth and the movements in nominal exchange rate on real GDP growth and inflation in Sri Lanka for the period from 1978 to 2005. The results of the recursive VARs are broadly in line with the established empirical findings, especially when the interest rate is considered the monetary policy variable. Following a positive innovation in interest rate, GDP growth and inflation decrease while the exchange rate appreciates. When money growth and exchange rate are used as policy indicators, the impact on GDP growth contrasts with established findings. However, as expected, an exchange rate appreciation has an immediate impact on the reduction of inflation. Interest rate innovations are persistent, supporting the view that the monetary authority adjusts interest rates gradually, while innovations in money growth and exchange rate appreciation are not persistent. Several puzzling results emerge from the study: for most sub-samples, inflation does not decline following a contractionary policy shock; innovations to money growth raises the interest rate; when inflation does respond, it reacts to monetary innovations faster than GDP growth does; and exchange rate appreciations almost always lead to an increase in GDP growth. The results from the semi-structural VARs, which impose identification restrictions only on the policy block, are not different from those obtained from recursive VARs. The results show that none of the sub-samples since 1978 can be identified with a particular targeting regime. In contrast, the interest rate, monetary aggregates and the exchange rate, contain important information in relation to the monetary policy stance. Based on this premise, a monetary policy index is estimated for Sri Lanka. The index displays that unanticipated monetary policy forms a smaller portion of monetary policy action in comparison to anticipated monetary policy. It is also observed that a decline in GDP growth is associated with anticipated policy with a short lag, while reductions in inflation are associated with both anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy with a longer lag of 28 to 36 months.

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  • Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2008. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 64866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64866
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    Cited by:

    1. Chandranath Amarasekara & Rahul Anand & Kithsiri Ehelepola & Hemantha Ekanayake & Vishuddhi Jayawickrema & Sujeetha Jegajeevan & Csaba Kober & Tharindi Nugawela & Sergey Plotnikov & Adam Remo & Poongo, 2018. "An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2018/149, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ayesh Ariyasinghe & N. S. Cooray, 2021. "The Nexus Of Foreign Reserves, Exchange Rate And Inflation: Recent Empirical Evidence From Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 22(1), pages 29-72, March.
    3. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2013. "Monetary Policy and the Real Economy: A Structural VAR Approach for Sri Lanka," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-13, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    4. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Can Monetary Policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(2), June.
    5. Kishan Abeygunawardana & Chandranath Amarasekara & C. D. Tilakaratne, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(1), pages 21-38, March.
    6. Rasika Perera & Masaru Ichihashi, 2016. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka," IDEC DP2 Series 6-6, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    7. Ha Thanh Le, 2015. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in Vietnam: A Structural VAR Analysis," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(1), pages 8-22.
    8. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Kenya:The role of money supply and interest rates," Working Papers 20712, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    9. Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2009. "Central Bank Objectives and Aggregate Disturbances," MPRA Paper 64868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Amankwah, Ernest & Atta Sarfo, Prince, 2019. "The causal linkages among money growth, inflaion and interest rates in Ghana," MPRA Paper 96485, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Economic Growth; Inflation; Central Banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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