IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/63184.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Dynamic Merger Effciencies with an Application to the 1997 Boeing-McDonnell Douglas Merger

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Wei

Abstract

I evaluate the welfare effects of the 1997 merger between Boeing and McDonnell Douglas in the medium-sized, wide-bodied aircraft industry. I develop an empirical model of multi-product firms, allowing for both learning-by-doing and product innovation in a dynamic game to quantify merger efficiency. Merger efficiency from learning-by-doing is then disentangled from both the effects of innovation and market power. The results show that the primary benefits from the Boeing-McDonnell Douglas merger come from accelerated learning-by-doing. Taking account of all static and dynamic effects, net consumer surplus is found to have increased by as much as $1.57 billion. In contrast, a static model ignoring learning-by-doing and innovation predicts a consumer loss of approximately $20 billion. These results show that ignoring dynamic effects can lead to biased results and erroneous policy decisions regarding the welfare effects of proposed mergers.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Wei, 2013. "Estimating Dynamic Merger Effciencies with an Application to the 1997 Boeing-McDonnell Douglas Merger," MPRA Paper 63184, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Sep 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63184/1/MPRA_paper_63184.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doraszelski, Ulrich & Pakes, Ariel, 2007. "A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in IO," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: Mark Armstrong & Robert Porter (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1887-1966, Elsevier.
    2. Jorge Niosi & Majlinda Zhegu, 2010. "Multinational Corporations, Value Chains and Knowledge Spillovers in the Global Aircraft Industry," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 2(2), pages 109-141, October.
    3. Volker Nocke & Michael D. Whinston, 2010. "Dynamic Merger Review," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1201-1251.
    4. Aamir Rafique Hashmi & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2016. "The Relationship between Market Structure and Innovation in Industry Equilibrium: A Case Study of the Global Automobile Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 192-208, March.
    5. Small, Kenneth A & Rosen, Harvey S, 1981. "Applied Welfare Economics with Discrete Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(1), pages 105-130, January.
    6. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "Technology and trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1279-1337, Elsevier.
    7. Peter Thompson, 2001. "How Much Did the Liberty Shipbuilders Learn? New Evidence for an Old Case Study," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(1), pages 103-137, February.
    8. Malte Schwoon, 2006. "Learning-by-doing, Learning Spillovers and the Diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles," Working Papers FNU-112, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2006.
    9. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
    10. Ariel Pakes & Paul McGuire, 1994. "Computing Markov-Perfect Nash Equilibria: Numerical Implications of a Dynamic Differentiated Product Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(4), pages 555-589, Winter.
    11. Steven D. Levitt & John A. List & Chad Syverson, 2013. "Toward an Understanding of Learning by Doing: Evidence from an Automobile Assembly Plant," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(4), pages 643-681.
    12. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    13. Ronald L. Goettler & Brett R. Gordon, 2011. "Does AMD Spur Intel to Innovate More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(6), pages 1141-1200.
    14. Ohashi, Hiroshi, 2005. "Learning by doing, export subsidies, and industry growth: Japanese steel in the 1950s and 1960s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 297-323, July.
    15. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 453-508, March.
    16. Rebecca Achee Thornton & Peter Thompson, 2001. "Learning from Experience and Learning from Others: An Exploration of Learning and Spillovers in Wartime Shipbuilding," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    17. Aamir Rafique Hashmi & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2016. "The Relationship between Market Structure and Innovation in Industry Equilibrium: A Case Study of the Global Automobile Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 192-208, March.
    18. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
    19. Chen, Jiawei, 2009. "The effects of mergers with dynamic capacity accumulation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 92-109, January.
    20. Gautam Gowrisankaran, 1999. "A Dynamic Model of Endogenous Horizonal Mergers," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(1), pages 56-83, Spring.
    21. Amitabh Chandra & Douglas O. Staiger, 2007. "Productivity Spillovers in Health Care: Evidence from the Treatment of Heart Attacks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 103-140.
    22. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    23. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December.
    24. Przemys?aw Jeziorski, 2014. "Effects of Mergers in Two-Sided Markets: The US Radio Industry," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 35-73, November.
    25. Trajtenberg, Manuel, 1989. "The Welfare Analysis of Product Innovations, with an Application to Computed Tomography Scanners," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 444-479, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. FUKASAWA Takeshi & OHASHI Hiroshi, 2023. "Long-run Effect of a Horizontal Merger and Its Remedial Standards," Discussion papers 23001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Linli Xu & Jorge M. Silva-Risso & Kenneth C. Wilbur, 2018. "Dynamic Quality Ladder Model Predictions in Nonrandom Holdout Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3187-3207, July.
    3. Ralph Siebert, 2002. "Learning by Doing and Multiproduction Effects over the Life Cycle: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-23, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    4. Brett Hollenbeck, 2020. "Horizontal mergers and innovation in concentrated industries," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-37, March.
    5. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski, 2005. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynanmics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 236, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov & Mark Satterthwaite, 2007. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynamics," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000903, UCLA Department of Economics.
    7. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov & Mark Satterthwaite, 2008. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynamics," GSIA Working Papers 2009-E22, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    8. Thompson, Peter, 2010. "Learning by Doing," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 429-476, Elsevier.
    9. Anelí Bongers, 2017. "Learning and forgetting in the jet fighter aircraft industry," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Park, Sangin, 2009. "An empirical evaluation of the 1986 Semiconductor Trade Arrangement," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 349-357, December.
    11. Anelí Bongers, 2023. "Learning by doing, organizational forgetting, and the business cycle," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 141-150, January.
    12. Gabriel Y. Weintraub & C. Lanier Benkard & Benjamin Van Roy, 2010. "Computational Methods for Oblivious Equilibrium," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-2), pages 1247-1265, August.
    13. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Nevo, Aviv, 2010. "Recent developments in empirical IO: dynamic demand and dynamic games," MPRA Paper 27814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Lafond, François & Greenwald, Diana & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2022. "Can Stimulating Demand Drive Costs Down? World War II as a Natural Experiment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 727-764, September.
    15. Maggi, Giovanni & Staiger, Robert W., 2020. "Learning by ruling and trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Siebert Ralph B, 2010. "Learning-by-Doing and Cannibalization Effects at Multi-Vintage Firms: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    17. Narajabad, Borghan & Watson, Randal, 2011. "The dynamics of innovation and horizontal differentiation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 825-842, June.
    18. Luca Colombo & Paola Labrecciosa, 2012. "Inter-firm knowledge diffusion, market power, and welfare," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 1009-1027, November.
    19. Ron N. Borkovsky & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov, 2010. "A User's Guide to Solving Dynamic Stochastic Games Using the Homotopy Method," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-2), pages 1116-1132, August.
    20. Samano, Mario & Santugini, Marc & Zaccour, Georges, 2017. "Dynamics in research joint ventures and R&D collaborations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-92.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Merger Efficiency; Dynamic Oligopoly Model; Learning-by-doing; innovation; Aircraft Industry Merger;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L40 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - General
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.