IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/62159.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mineral exploration as a game of chance

Author

Listed:
  • Bell, Peter N

Abstract

Exploration is a costly activity that helps a business improve their understanding of a potential mineral deposit. Yet, even with strong exploration results, the business faces uncertainty over the value of the mine. I model this situation as a game of chance. The game starts by giving an agent an asset with random value and ends when the agent chooses to accept the random value or reject it and receive zero instead. The agent can pay to learn more about the asset’s value as many times as they like before they end the game, but no amount of exploration will remove all uncertainty. I provide a decision rule for the agent based on an interval estimate for the asset value and analyze performance of the decision rule in a simulation experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bell, Peter N, 2015. "Mineral exploration as a game of chance," MPRA Paper 62159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62159/1/MPRA_paper_62159.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David B. Brown & James E. Smith, 2013. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: Bandits, Clairvoyants, and Wildcats," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 644-665, June.
    2. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Chang, Sheldon, 1982. "Optimal pricing, use, and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March.
    3. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978, November.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-1225, December.
    5. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2009. "Estimating strategic interactions in petroleum exploration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 586-594, July.
    6. J. Eric Bickel & James E. Smith, 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 16-32, March.
    7. Kenneth Hendricks & Dan Kovenock, 1989. "Asymmetric Information, Information Externalities, and Efficiency: The Case of Oil Exploration," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 20(2), pages 164-182, Summer.
    8. Cairns, Robert D, 1990. "The Economics of Exploration for Non-renewable Resources," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 361-395.
    9. Cairns, Robert D. & Van Quyen, Nguyen, 1998. "Optimal Exploration for and Exploitation of Heterogeneous Mineral Deposits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 164-189, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emilio Castillo, 2020. "Mineral Exploration and the Discovery of New Deposits," Working Papers 2020-06, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    2. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Li, Chuan-Zhong & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1226-1233.
    3. Castillo, Emilio & Roa, Cintia, 2021. "Defining geological maturity: The effect of discoveries on early-stage mineral exploration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Eiji Sawada & Shunsuke Managi, 2014. "Effects of Technological Change on Non-renewable Resource Extraction and Exploration," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Sunnevag, Kjell, 1998. "An option pricing approach to exploration licensing strategy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 25-38, March.
    6. Cairns, Robert D. & Van Quyen, Nguyen, 1998. "Optimal Exploration for and Exploitation of Heterogeneous Mineral Deposits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 164-189, March.
    7. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    8. Julien Daubanes & Pierre Lasserre, 2019. "The supply of non-renewable resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1084-1111, August.
    9. Elin Berg & Snorre Kverndokk & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1999. "Optimal Oil Exploration under Climate Treaties," Discussion Papers 245, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    10. Toman, Michael & Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2003. "Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply," RFF Working Paper Series dp-03-01, Resources for the Future.
    11. Smith, James L. & Thompson, Rex, 2009. "Rational plunging and the option value of sequential investment: The case of petroleum exploration," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1009-1033, August.
    12. Berg, Elin & Kverndokk, Snorre & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2002. "Oil Exploration under Climate Treaties," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 493-516, November.
    13. Mohr, Ernst, 1985. "Appropriation of common access natural resources through exploration: A differential game of a claiming rush," Discussion Papers, Series I 206, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    14. Behrens, Axel, 1989. "Optimal resource extraction under stochastic terms of trade," Kiel Working Papers 395, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Petter Vegard Hansen, 2009. "Inflow Uncertainty in Hydropower Markets," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(1), pages 189-207, March.
    16. Stuermer, Martin, 2018. "150 Years Of Boom And Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 702-717, April.
    17. Massoud Khazabi & Nguyen Van Quyen, 2017. "The search for new drugs: a theory of R&D in the pharmaceutical industry," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(5), pages 690-726, October.
    18. Luca Lambertini, 2014. "Exploration For Nonrenewable Resources In A Dynamic Oligopoly: An Arrovian Result," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 1-11.
    19. Sudhakar D. Deshmukh & Stanley R. Pliska, 1981. "Optimal Consumption of A Nonrenewable Resource with Stochastic Discoveries and a Random Environment," Discussion Papers 500, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    20. Hartwick, John M. & Sadorsky, Perry, 1988. "Duopoly in Exhaustible Resource Exploration and Extraction," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275214, Queen's University - Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mineral exploration; game theory; learning; simulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • Q39 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.