IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/6154.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Financial Growth lead Economic Performance in India? Causality-Cointegration using Unrestricted Vector Error Correction Models

Author

Listed:
  • Kamat, Manoj
  • Kamat, Manasvi

Abstract

Using contemporary models this paper explores the time-series properties of financial infrastructure and economic growth indicators to investigate the nexus between developments in financial intermediation with the economic growth for India over the 1971-2004 periods. Both over short-run and the long-run perspective the paper seeks to answer; whether the financial infrastructure variables are complementary or a substitute for economic performance? and in what way economic growth is affected by the financial infrastructural development indicators? We find evidence in favor of a short run “financial infrastructure led economic growth”. Finance is found to be a leading sector only in the short-term link in Granger causality tests with stationary variables. The study provides robust empirical evidence in favor of supply leading hypothesis for the Indian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamat, Manoj & Kamat, Manasvi, 2007. "Does Financial Growth lead Economic Performance in India? Causality-Cointegration using Unrestricted Vector Error Correction Models," MPRA Paper 6154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6154/1/MPRA_paper_6154.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    2. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
    3. R. N. Agarwal, 1997. "Foreign Portfolio Investment In Some Developing Countries: A Study of Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 217-229, July.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth: An Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 223-239, May.
    6. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    7. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    8. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 783-799, May.
    9. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    10. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    11. Chandavarkar, Anand, 1992. "Of finance and development: Neglected and unsettled questions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-142, January.
    12. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    13. Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 1996. "Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banker Sector Controls: Evidence from India," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 359-374, March.
    14. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
    15. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    16. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. World Bank, 1996. "Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 1996," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32391.
    19. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Godfrey Osaseri & Ifuero Osad Osamwonyi, 2019. "Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in BRICS," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(1), pages 23-30, January.
    2. Bilge Kagan Ozdemir, 2009. "Banking Sector Stability During The Process Of Euro Adoption," Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Anadolu University, vol. 9(1), pages 123-1236, June.
    3. Madhu Sehrawat & A. K. Giri, 2017. "Financial Structure, Interest Rate, Trade Openness and Growth: Time Series Analysis of Indian Economy," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(5), pages 1278-1290, October.
    4. Madhu Sehrawat & A.K. Giri, 2017. "A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 911-923, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kamat, Manoj & Kamat, Manasvi, 2007. "The New Information Age & the Stock Market Growth Puzzle," MPRA Paper 5158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dr. Manoj S. Kamat & Dr Manasvi, 2015. "Financial Intermediation and Stock Market Activity Growth: A Causality- Co-Integration Approach," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 6(2), pages 01-10, May.
    3. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    4. Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2006. "An empirical investigation around the finance-growth puzzle in China with a particular focus on causality and efficiency considerations," MPRA Paper 3946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    5. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    6. Kar, Muhsin & NazlIoglu, Saban & AgIr, Hüseyin, 2011. "Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 685-693, January.
    7. Vassiki Sanogo & Richard K. Moussa, 2017. "Financial Reforms, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in the Ivory Coast," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, February.
    8. Thomas Gries & Manfred Kraft & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Financial deepening, trade openness and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4729-4739.
    9. Abdul Rafay & Saqib Farid, 2017. "Dynamic Relationship between Islamic Banking System and Real Economic Activity: Evidence from Pakistan العلاقة الديناميكية بين النظام المصرفي الإسلامي والنشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي: التجربة الباكستانية," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 30(2), pages 97-116, July.
    10. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
    11. Mouawiya Al-Awad & Nasri Harb, 2005. "Financial development and economic growth in the Middle East," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1041-1051.
    12. Kar Muhsin & Peker Osman & Kaplan Muhittin, 2008. "Trade Liberalization, Financial Development and Economic Growth in The Long Term: The Case of Turkey," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 25-38, November.
    13. Jagadish Prasad Bist & Nar Bahadur Bista, 2018. "Finance–Growth Nexus in Nepal: An Application of the ARDL Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 43(4), pages 236-249, December.
    14. Polat, Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Satti, Saqlain Latif, 2013. "Revisiting Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 51724, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2013.
    15. Law, Siong Hook & Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Smith, Peter, 2006. "Finance and growth in a small open emerging market," MPRA Paper 715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ang, James B. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2007. "Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 215-233, September.
    17. Liang, Qi & Teng, Jian-Zhou, 2006. "Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 395-411.
    18. Onur ÖZDEMİR, 2020. "Revisiting the Finance-Growth Nexus in Turkey: Bayer-Hanck Combined Cointegration Approach over the 1970-2016 Period," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(44).
    19. repec:abd:kauiea:v:30:y:2017:i:2:p:97-116 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Md Nain & Bandi Kamaiah, 2014. "Financial development and economic growth in India: some evidence from non-linear causality analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 299-319, November.
    21. TRABELSI, Mohammed, 2002. "Finance and Growth : Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries, 1960-1990," Cahiers de recherche 2002-13, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance; Infrastructure; Development; Economic Growth; Lag-lead; Granger Causality; Cointegration; VAR; VECM; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.