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Dynamic Relationship between Islamic Banking System and Real Economic Activity: Evidence from Pakistan العلاقة الديناميكية بين النظام المصرفي الإسلامي والنشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي: التجربة الباكستانية

Author

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  • Abdul Rafay

    (School of Business and Economics, University of Management and Technology (UMT), Pakistan)

  • Saqib Farid

    (School of Business and Economics, University of Management and Technology (UMT), Pakistan)

Abstract

This study examines the rapid expansion and diffusion of Islamic banking and its relationship with real economic activity in Pakistan. Additionally, the study also highlights the functional role of Islamic banking for greater economic activity and growth in Pakistan. Two major balance sheet items of Islamic banks (Islamic deposits and Islamic financing and investment) were used as proxies for Islamic banking development. The Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) was used as a proxy for real economic activity. Quarterly data was obtained from statistical bulletins of the State Bank of Pakistan. Robust time series techniques such as the JJ Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Functions, and Variance Decomposition Analysis were used for the data analysis. The findings of the study unveil a significant positive and dynamic long term bi-directional causal relationship between Islamic banking and real economic activity. Furthermore, the findings also reinforce that the State Bank of Pakistan should continue promoting Islamic banking as a parallel banking system to the conventional system as it exerts a substantial positive impact on real economic activity in Pakistan. تتناول هذه الورقة التوسّع السريع للخدمات المصرفية الإسلامية وانتشارها وعلاقتها بالنشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي في باكستان. كما تسلِّط الضوء على الدور الوظيفي للمصرفية الإسلامية في زيادة النشاط الاقتصادي والنمو في باكستان. وتمّ استخدام بيانين رئيسيين في الميزانية العمومية للمصارف الإسلامية كمؤشرين لنمو الصناعة، وهما: الودائع الإسلامية والتمويل والاستثمار الإسلامي. كما تمّ استخدم مؤشر التصنيع على النطاق الكبير كمؤشر للنشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي. وجُمِّعت بيانات الدراسة من خلال النشرات الفصلية الإحصائية التي يصدرها البنك المركزي الباكستاني. ولتحليل البيانات تم استخدام تقنيات السلاسل الزمنيّة مثل اختبار التجميع المشترك، واختبار غرانجر للسببية، ودالات استجابة النبضات، وتحليل تفكيك التباين. وكشفت نتائج الدراسة عن وجود علاقة سببية إيجابية وديناميكية على المدى الطويل وثنائية الاتجاه بين المصرفية الإسلامية والنشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي. كما تؤكد ضرورة استمرار البنك المركزي الباكستاني في تعزيز المصرفية الإسلامية كنظام مصرفي مواز للنظام التقليدي بالنظر إلى أثره الإيجابي الكبير على النشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي في البلاد.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Rafay & Saqib Farid, 2017. "Dynamic Relationship between Islamic Banking System and Real Economic Activity: Evidence from Pakistan العلاقة الديناميكية بين النظام المصرفي الإسلامي والنشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي: التجربة الباكستانية," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 30(2), pages 97-116, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:abd:kauiea:v:30:y:2017:i:2:no:10:p:97-116
    DOI: 10.4197/Islec.30-2.10
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Islamic Banking; Islamic Deposits; Islamic Financing and Investments; LSMI Index; IRF; VDC; Economic Activity. المصرفية الإسلامية، الودائع الإسلامية، التمويل والاستثمار الإسلامي، المؤشرات، النشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

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