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Estimating Central Bank Preferences Combining Topic and Scaling Methods

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  • Baerg, Nicole Rae
  • Lowe, Will

Abstract

Scholars often use Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes to estimate the preferences of central bankers. However, rarely do committee members on the FOMC cast dissenting votes. This article demonstrates the usefulness of using what central bankers say in FOMC meetings rather than how they vote to better measure central bank preferences. Using automated text analysis tools and scaling methods, we develop a new measure of central bank preferences on the FOMC leading up to the financial crisis (2005 - 2008).

Suggested Citation

  • Baerg, Nicole Rae & Lowe, Will, 2015. "Estimating Central Bank Preferences Combining Topic and Scaling Methods," MPRA Paper 61534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:61534
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61534/1/MPRA_paper_61534.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. EllenE. Meade & David Stasavage, 2008. "Publicity of Debate and the Incentive to Dissent: Evidence from the US Federal Reserve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 695-717, April.
    2. Havrilesky, Thomas & Gildea, John A, 1991. "The Policy Preferences of FOMC Members as Revealed by Dissenting Votes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(1), pages 130-138, February.
    3. Clinton, Joshua & Jackman, Simon & Rivers, Douglas, 2004. "The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(2), pages 355-370, May.
    4. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Ellen E. Meade, 2010. "Is There a Limit on FOMC Dissents? Evidence from the Greenspan Era," Working Papers 2010-16, American University, Department of Economics.
    5. Adolph,Christopher, 2013. "Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107032613, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. David Bholat & Stephen Hans & Pedro Santos & Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, 2015. "Text mining for central banks," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 33, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Banking; Federal Reserve Bank; Monetary Policy; Ideal Point Estimation; Textual Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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