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Chorus in the Cacophony: Dissent and Policy Communication of India’s Monetary Policy Committee

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  • Rounak Sil
  • Unninarayanan Kurup
  • Ashima Goyal
  • Apoorva Singh
  • Rajendra Narayan Paramanik

Abstract

Using minutes of consecutive Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings of the Indian central bank, we have constructed two novel measures of implicit dissent at the individual level as well as across groups. We have used VADER sentiment analysis to arrive at the proposed measures and investigated their influence on anchoring Indian growth and inflation forecasts. Our empirical findings show discordance among members increases forecast accuracy. This implies promoting an environment that supports nuanced opinions could improve policy outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rounak Sil & Unninarayanan Kurup & Ashima Goyal & Apoorva Singh & Rajendra Narayan Paramanik, 2024. "Chorus in the Cacophony: Dissent and Policy Communication of India’s Monetary Policy Committee," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(18), pages 1900-1906, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:31:y:2024:i:18:p:1900-1906
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2023.2208823
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Prat, 2005. "The Wrong Kind of Transparency," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 862-877, June.
    2. Ullrich, Katrin, 2008. "Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
    3. EllenE. Meade & David Stasavage, 2008. "Publicity of Debate and the Incentive to Dissent: Evidence from the US Federal Reserve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 695-717, April.
    4. Christopher Spencer, 2006. "The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0306, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    5. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter, 2001. "Information aggregation in debate: who should speak first?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 393-421, September.
    6. Malmendier, Ulrike & Nagel, Stefan & Yan, Zhen, 2021. "The making of hawks and doves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 19-42.
    7. Michael Ehrmann & Sylvester Eijffinger & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 1018-1052, September.
    8. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Qualitative and quantitative Central Bank communications and professional forecasts: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. Adolph,Christopher, 2013. "Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107032613, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Spandan Banerjee & Rajendra N. Paramanik & Rounak Sil & Unninarayanan Kurup, 2024. "When all speak, should we listen? A cross‐country analysis of disagreement in policymaking and its implications," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 53(2), July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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