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Beware of feedback effects among trust, risk and public opinion: Quantitative estimates of rational versus emotional influences on attitudes toward genetic modification

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  • Kelley, Jonathan

Abstract

Support for genetic modification in agriculture mainly stems from approval of food and agricultural goals. It is facilitated by trust in the judgment of scientific authorities and undermined by anxiety about the risks involved. But there are symptoms of danger: Any public opinion data that show significant correlations between perceptions of fact (risk, trust etc.) and background characteristics (age, sex, religion, politics) or goals (environmental, medical, economic) typically reflect emotional feedback effects as well as rational scientific ones. Estimates from regression are then biased and more complex models required. Our structural equation analyses of five large, representative national surveys of Australia (N = 8730) provide precise estimates of the magnitude of these effects, including reciprocal effects reflecting emotional influences. We also find that: (1) acceptance of the scientific worldview modestly increases support both directly and also indirectly through its influence on trust; (2) family socio-economic background increases knowledge of genetic engineering but is otherwise inconsequential; and (3) religious belief greatly hinders acceptance of the scientific worldview and slightly increases anxiety about risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelley, Jonathan, 2014. "Beware of feedback effects among trust, risk and public opinion: Quantitative estimates of rational versus emotional influences on attitudes toward genetic modification," MPRA Paper 60585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60585
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60585/1/MPRA_paper_60585.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Noah Zerbe, 2007. "Risking Regulation, Regulating Risk: Lessons from the Transatlantic Biotech Dispute," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 24(5), pages 407-423, September.
    2. Michael Siegrist, 2000. "The Influence of Trust and Perceptions of Risks and Benefits on the Acceptance of Gene Technology," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 195-204, April.
    3. Maria Paola Ferretti & Matteo Lener, 2008. "Lay Public or Experts? e‐Participation in Authorization for GMO Products in the European Union," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 25(6), pages 507-525, December.
    4. Nick F. Pidgeon & Wouter Poortinga & Gene Rowe & Tom Horlick‐Jones & John Walls & Tim O'Riordan, 2005. "Using Surveys in Public Participation Processes for Risk Decision Making: The Case of the 2003 British GM Nation? Public Debate," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 467-479, April.
    5. Jonathan Kelley & M. D. R. Evans, 1999. "Australian and International Survey Data for Multivariate Analysis: The IsssA," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 32(3), pages 298-303, September.
    6. Hajime Sato & Akira Akabayashi, 2005. "Bioethical Policymaking for Advanced Medical Technologies: Institutional Characteristics and Citizen Participation in Eight OECD Countries1," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 22(4), pages 571-587, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Brazil, Preservation of Forest and Biodiversity," MPRA Paper 71462, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jonathan Kelley, 2017. "Human Gains and Losses from Global Warming: Satisfaction with the Climate in the USA, Winter and Summer, North and South," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 345-366, March.
    3. Kelley, Jonathan, 2024. "HUMAN GAINS AND LOSSES FROM GLOBAL WARMING: Satisfaction with the Climate in the USA, Winter and Summer, North and South," SocArXiv f2zcw, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trust; risk; genetic modification; genetic engineering; scientific worldview; religious belief; public opinion; reciprocal effects; SEM; Australia; survey research; rational choice; emotional feedback; irrational effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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